Page updated 5 December 2005

Workshop Home

List of Participants

Newsroom

Background

Program and Events

Agenda

Abstracts

Presentations

Call for Contributed Presentations

Sponsors

Registration and Rates

General Information

Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4

Water Management: Application of Climate Science (WA)

Sub-Theme 1: Water Supply Science and Information Needs

Moderator Introduction
Robert Livezey, NOAA, National Weather Service [Presentation: PDF | PPT]

WA1.1

Droughts and Floods: Better Predictions thru Attribution

Martin Hoerling, NOAA OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305, martin.hoerling@noaa.gov

Fundamental to advancing predictions of extreme climate and weather states is to explain their origins and causes. This talk examines how well we understand the known severe and sustained droughts of the 20 th Century, including the Great Plains Dust Bowl era and the ongoing Western U.S. drought. Modeling work is presented that identifies a significant role for the oceans in such prolonged droughts. The diagnosis of such simulations is used to guide recommendations for future Earth System monitoring and modeling requirements in order to successfully predict drought.

Floods as high impact events are typically associated with individual storms, especially hurricanes. Insight from the scientific community has been especially sought in accounting for the unprecedented Atlantic hurricane season that included Katrina and Rita in 2005. No less important than explaining the Western drought has been the public and decision maker's requests to interpret this intense hurricane behavior. The talk summarizes current
understanding of the factors influencing hurricane variability.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

WA1.2

Climate in Three Dimensions: Integrated Mountain Climate Observations

Kelly Redmond, DRI/WRCC, kelly.redmond@dri.edu

In topographically diverse regions such as the western United States, concentrated centers of population along rivers and coasts rely on resources that originate in relatively small, high-altitude areas. Of these resources, water is the most necessary and therefore most prominent. Other important resources such as timber, grazing lands, minerals, and recreational enjoyment are strongly affected by the availability and use of water. Change is under way in all mountain systems, a result of a complex intersection of factors: demographic, technological, attitudinal, and physical drivers. However, our collective understanding of mountain systems and the way they behave in time is a patchwork quilt. A variety of recent investigations have begun to reveal that fundamental changes have already occurred that are just now being retrospectively identified, quantified, and interpreted. Most of the
hydrologically important water in the West originates as precipitation on public lands. Decisions by federal, regional, state, local and private resource managers require accurate and updated information on status, trends and prospects. There are also significant issues of spatial scales of such information. In an assessment of current knowledge and capabilities, physical and ecological scientists working on western United States mountain climate and ecosystems recognized that more communications, improved observations, better integration, and greater attention to the vulnerability of western mountain resources to climate variability and change are needed. The resulting Consortium for Integrated Climate Research in Western Mountains (CIRMOUNT) has sponsored mountain climate conferences in 2004 and 2005, with another planned in 2006. In their manifesto, Mapping New Terrain (expected late summer 2005), consortium and meeting participants identified four urgent challenges facing western North America climate science and policy communities: 1) Mountain regions are vastly under-instrumented to measure climate and long-term changes. 2) Research on western mountain climates and ecosystems is intensive, but scattered and poorly integrated. 3) Societal demands on western mountain ecosystems are exponentially escalating, imposing new stresses on natural resources and rural community capacities. 4) Although mountains are particularly vulnerable to climate-change impacts, projected climate changes have generally been ignored in mountain land-use planning and natural-resource policies to the detriment of their ecosystems and natural resources. Better monitoring is a universally expressed need and must be addressed in order to provide a basis for decision making and decision support throughout the West.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

WA1.3

Climate Forecasts and Reservoir Management – Possibilities and Challenges

Sankar Arumugam, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction,
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, sankar_arumugam@ncsu.edu

Upmanu Lall, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964

Casey Brown, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964

Neil Ward, International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964

A dynamic reservoir water allocation strategy that uses probabilistic inflow forecasts to size annual contracts with pre-specified reliability is presented and the application of the model with two contrasting river basin settings is presented. Traditionally, reservoir rule curves are obtained for the given
seasonal/annual demand based on the driest envelope in the entire historical record, thereby adhering to the same rule curve every year for reservoir operation. The utility of climate based reservoir inflow forecasts as an alternative to this apparently conservative strategy is demonstrated. Water managers and practitioners are often risk-averse and are hence reluctant to change their practices; particularly given the perception that use of probabilistic methods induces a new risk. This may be expressed as a concern with forecast skill. The strategy presented here is designed for a participatory water allocation process, where users could express their potential demand for water through statements that cover quantity needed at a particular reliability, the associated willingness to pay, and compensation needed in the event of contract non-performance. Community priorities can also be accommodated, and a system of contracts can be designed that meets multiple needs with specified reliability and priorities, contingent on a probabilistic inflow forecast. These
contracts can be used to allocate water each year above and beyond long-term contracts that may have precedence.

By performing retrospective analyses that combines streamflow forecasts with the dynamic water allocation model, we show that considerable reduction in system losses (spill and evaporation) could be achieved resulting in increased reservoir yields by adapting climate forecasts for reservoir management. Importance of updating the climate forecasts on a monthly basis and its utility in managing hydropower systems are also demonstrated. Results from the analyses also show that streamflow forecasts are more beneficial during above and below normal conditions, which helps in preparing for adverse conditions as well as in setting up contingency measures. Further, analyzing the system performance under different scenarios of storage and demand, we show that the utility of climate information based reservoir inflow forecasts is more pronounced for systems with low storage to demand ratio. As challenges in implementing these scientific developments, we emphasize the importance of institutional setting and the relevant WA policy instruments that will promote climate information based risk management strategies.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

WA1.4

Experiences from the Water Resources and Agricultural Sectors during Drought:
What Do Users Want? What Do Researchers Want? What is Needed?

R. Webb, NOAA/CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center Boulder, CO 80305, Robert.S.Webb@NOAA.gov

R. Pulwarty, NOAA/CIRES/CDC and WWA Boulder, CO 80305

D. Kenney, Natural Resources Law Center University of Colorado Boulder, CO 80309

S. Jain, NOAA/CIRES/CDC Boulder, CO 80305

A. Ray, NOAA/OAR/CDC Boulder, CO 80305

B. Udall, CIRES/Western Water Assessment University of Colorado Boulder

K. Wolter, NOAA/CIRES/CDC Boulder, CO 80305

Climatic events and related decisions cross scales of impacts from shorter-term (months) to long-term (decades and longer) and from one state, county or watershed to the next. Decision-making within the management of natural resources occurs in a complex environment with climate as one factor. Our study focuses on the role of climate information in decision making within water resources and agriculture at different scales. The goal is to determine when and how climate plays a role in the water and agricultural sectors and what constitutes usable climatic information through two questions: (i) What is needed to facilitate drought-related decision-making? And, (ii) Where do science, policy and operations meet and how are
participatory benchmarks evaluated? We will describe: Who are the "users" of climate-related information?; What constitutes such information and how is it related to management decision calendars and models including thresholds and triggers; Researchers as stakeholders in the process; How are the gaps, such as differing perceptions of risks, addressed? The overarching framework is to elicit data on information needs, quality, acceptability
context of use, accessibility and benefit. Lessons are taken from studies carried out in response to the continuing drought in the Western United States. Barriers to incorporation of climate information in such settings have been documented and include technical, cognitive, financial, legal, time and infrastructural constraints. In addition, evolution in the management and institutional context, priorities, principles, and responses may result in mediating the sensitivity of the system to climate variability and change. Approaches to incorporating climate information typically apply simulation and optimization methods to improve the efficiency of operational procedures. Managers frequently perceive such research-based methods as externally generated and not well-matched to knowledge systems and hedging strategies within the management process. In addition, idealized expected values propose misleading estimates of what can be achieved in practice. In this presentation we move beyond a prescriptive emphasis on "format" or "two-way" communications to establishing a dialog about risk and the transactions costs involved in maintaining such a dialog. We show how these criteria may be met through developing active partnerships and through specific tools for communication and collaboration. The goal is to inform the development of risk management tools and processes in the context of science and management innovations under changing environmental and social conditions

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

WA1.5

Managing Seattle's Water Supply in Step with a Changing Climate

Daniel Basketfield, P.E., Seattle Public Utilities, dan.basketfield@seattle.gov

Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) is responsible for providing a reliable source of drinking water for 1.3 million people, and it is essential that SPU water managers employ water management practices that stay ahead of ongoing changes in the climate of the Pacific Northwest. This presentation describes how particular climatic data products and ongoing in-house research at SPU are playing an increasingly important role in our operations and intermediate to long-range planning, and what improvements in these products would be of significant benefit to our citizens.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]