CCSP Workshop, November 2005 Abstracts Posters: Water & Energy (P-WE), Sub-Theme 1: Decision Support Applications: Practice & Theory
| Home
CCSP Workshop, November 2005 Abstracts Posters: Water & Energy (P-WE), Sub-Theme 1: Decision Support Applications: Practice & Theory |
|
|
|
|
Page updated 5 December 2005 Call for Contributed Presentations
Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005) |
 |
Abstracts for PostersWater & Energy (P-WE)Sub-Theme 1: Decision Support Applications: Practice & TheoryWP-WE1.1Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC): The First Decade
Eileen Shea, East-West Center, SheaE@EastWestCenter.org This presentation will provide insights derived from a decade of experience producing and using seasonal climate forecasts American Flag and U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands.1 An ongoing review of the first decade of operations of the Pacific ENSO Applications Center (PEAC) is providing guidelines for the design of future climate services2 in the region and helping to document how climate information is supporting adaptive management and planning capabilities in the jurisdictions served by PEAC. The author was the initial Federal program manager for the PEAC research pilot project and is now leading Pacific regional climate vulnerability assessment and risk management programs at the East-West Center in Honolulu, HI, including the review of PEAC operations that will serve as the focus of this presentation. The PEAC review is enabling scientists, decision-makers and funding agencies to develop a sense of how well this program is currently addressing some of the general design principles highlighted in the 1999 National Research Council (NRC) report entitled Making Climate Forecasts Matter including issues related to:
1The American Flag Pacific Islands comprise the State of Hawaii, Guam, American Samoa and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands and the U.S.-affiliated Pacific Islands comprise the Republic of the Marshall Islands, the Republic of Palau and the Federated States of Micronesia. 2James Weyman, Pacific Region Climate Services Focal Point for the NWS Pacific Region, indicated at a June 2004 workshop conducted as part of the PEAC review that the findings and recommendations for the review will provide a "roadmap for the future of PEAC and climate services in the Pacific region." P-WE1.2Climate Change—A Looming Challenge for California:
Dan Cayan, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD, dcayan@ucsd.edu Michael Dettinger, U.S. Geological Survey Kelly Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center Anthony Westerling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Guido Franco, Califrornia Energy Commission Frank Gehrke, California Department of Water Resources Mary Tyree, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Noah Knowles, U.S. Geological Survey Hugo Hidalgo, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Laura Edwards, Western Regional Climate Center David Pierce, Scripps Institution of Oceanography Peter Bromirski, Scripps Institution of Oceanography To inform California decision makers of challenges in the next few-several decades that are likely to be imposed by climate changes, the State has instated a California Climate Change Center (CCCC), which includes physical climate scientists and a collective of economists and other social In one way or another, many of the State's climate issues are related to water. California is vulnerable to changes in climate owing to a volatile climate background, its dependence on snowpack and its exposure to coastal sea level rises. Climate change impacts in California are strongly oriented around water issues—water is vital for ecosystems, agriculture and industrial and domestic consumers. California's water resources are already heavily utilized and climate change is an additional stress. In California, snow provides an important additional reservoir that historically has been equivalent to almost half of the water stored in the "built" reservoirs, capturing winter storm precipitation and releasing it relatively gradually later in spring and summer when the threat of storms has diminished and demand is higher. Climate warming over the last half century has already impacted spring snowpack in the region, with losses of approximately 11% over the West, and advances in spring snowmelt timing of one-four weeks. Projected warming, adding to the ~1ºC increase seen in the recent historical period, would have a substantial impact on snow accumulation in the Sierra Nevada, a relatively warm mountain range which has a high sensitivity to changes in temperature. Hydrologic models project that such a warming would cause more rain, less snow, and earlier snowmelt, so that, by the middle of the 21st century, spring snowpack would be diminished by 25 to 40%, depending on greenhouse gas emissions and the resultant regional warming. On top of this, as with other western states, natural climate variability in California is large, so that any given year is not guaranteed to provide the "normal" supply. There is a propensity for multi-year droughts, as we know from our instrumental record as well as from paleoclimate evidence. Longer summers and higher temperatures will likely amplify the demand for water, not only by humans, but by natural ecosystems and agricultural settings, and would increase wildfire threats. Ironically, the incidence of floods is also likely to increase as rain/snow boundaries in mountain catchments reach higher altitudes. California has about 1,500 km of coastline and several coastal aquifers which are susceptible to sea water intrusion. Also, because much of California's precipitation falls in the north and most of the consumption of water occurs to the south, much of the State's water system is conveyed through the upper reaches of the San Francisco Bay estuary, at the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers. Rising sea levels would threaten this fresh water supply as well as rich ecosystems and levied farm land in the San Francisco Bay Delta. P-WE1.3The Western Water Assessment: Integrated Sciences for Decision Support
Bradley Udall, University of Colorado - CIRES, bradley.udall@colorado.eduP Roger Pulwarty, NOAA/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Martyn Clark, University of Colorado - CIRES Doug Kenney, University of Colorado - Natural Resources Law Center Chris Goemans, University of Colorado - Institute for Behavorial Studies Randy Dole, NOAA/CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center Susan Avery, University of Colorado The NOAA/CIRES Western Water Assessment is centered at the University of Colorado, Boulder. The Interior West (Colorado Plateau and its runoff basins) contains the primary headwaters for water supply to major regions, including the Colorado Front Range, the arid Southwest, California, and the western Great Plains. The Assessment was developed to address the issues surrounding climate variability and change, and their impacts on water quality and quantity in the Interior West. The initial projects were chosen with thought given to climate variability impacts on water supply and ecosystems, water demand trends, and system vulnerability. The first case study in the "Western Water Assessment" was on the South Platte Basin. Partners included the Bureau of Reclamation and various Conservancy Districts. The team's approach to assessing regional change and vulnerability on the South Platte includes the following areas of emphases: climate impacts on water supply and demand zones in the South Platte (where 30% of water used is transferred from the West Slope); investigating current uses of climate information and user needs; development of tailored ENSO forecasts for improving seasonal water supply planning; creation of short-term streamflow forecasts for specific management applications (e.g. flow augmentation requirements for the maintenance of endangered fish habitat); and implications of climate variability for low flows and dilution of discharges from point sources. More recently interest has been generated in the use of paleoclimatic data in long-term water resources assessments and projections especially in the Front Range. WWA has a very wide diversity of partnerships, loosely grouped into three categories: (1) climate-information providers (National Weather Service including river forecast centers, National Interagency Fire Center, Colorado Drought Task Force), (2) operational water managers (e.g., municipal water suppliers and federal reservoir managers), and (3) planning and policy interests (e.g., legislators, county commissioners, major interest groups, and the general public). With very few exceptions, these interests all share a focus on water resources in the interior West. This diversity of stakeholders necessitates a mixed portfolio of products and processes. As these have evolved over time so has the structure and dynamics of the WWA team itself. Its evolution provides valuable lessons for the design of interdisciplinary teams working under a decision support framework. P-WE1.4Effecting Systemic Change in Climate Information Delivery and Decision Support
Holly Hartmann, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona, hollyoregon@juno.com The U.S. national investment in remote sensing systems, supercomputers, climate research, and scientist education has produced significant advances in climate monitoring, understanding, and predictive capabilities. However, realization of socio-economic benefits from those investments remains incomplete, for many reasons. While climate researchers have collaborated with social scientists and decision makers to advance climate science applications, those collaborations have generally been limited to specific regions and sectors. However, experience within the NOAA-funded Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) has made clear that there are commonalities across sectors and stakeholders on which to base systemic advancement of climate information products and delivery. Systemic advancement requires accommodating the unique needs of decision makers, including the specific mix of multiple products required to support their decisions, the level of information certainty and forecast skill required for specific decisions, varying Demonstration is provided of two Internet-based tools designed to enable systemic change in climate information delivery and decision support from a knowledge development paradigm. The first tool addresses cognitive barriers through tutorials, tools for exploring the time-evolution of forecasts and observations, user-customized assessments of forecast skill, and placing predictions in the context of historical and recent observations. The second tool addresses difficulties in simply accessing and managing the plethora of climate information from multiple sources, by providing user-managed project folders to store selected products for multiple applications and efficient access over repeated website visits, and dynamic PDF report generation that ensures inclusion of ancillary information while allowing customized interpretive comments (e.g., for delivery of information by intermediaries such as extension agents or state climatologists). The tools also provide ongoing feedback to operational agencies, science managers, and researchers about products preferred by different types of users and applications. However, highly interactive, user-customizable Web tools conflict with present federal policies and practices that prohibit user profiles, restrict use of industry-standard software, and require complex and time-consuming webpage approval, among others. As decision makers should adapt to changes in climate and information, federal agencies should adapt to changes in technology and user needs. P-WE1.5Barriers to Weather and Climate Forecast Use by Community Water System managers
Brent Yarnal, Center for Integrated Regional Assessment, The Pennsylvania State University, alibar@eesi.psu.edu Robert O'Connor, Decision, Risk, and Management Science Program, National Science Foundation, roconnor@nsf.gov Kirstin Dow, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, kdow@sc.edu Christine L. Jocoy, Department of Geography, California State University, Long Beach, cjocoy@csulb.edu Greg Carbone, Department of Geography, University of South Carolina, greg.carbone@sc.edu Weather and climate forecasts should have an important role in the management of water resources. Yet, most water resource managers make minimal use of these forecasts for managing risk and reducing the vulnerability of their systems to adverse weather and climate. In our research on relationships between producers and users of climate forecasts, we study the perceptions of Community Water System (CWS) managers in South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania to explore why they do or do not use weather and climate forecasts. We base our findings on the results of two mail surveys and three sets of follow-up interviews. The results reveal three barriers that prevent managers from incorporating weather and climate forecasts in their planning; each barrier has significant implications for communicating climate forecasts to resource managers and other stakeholders. First, the strongest barrier to forecast use is the managers' perceptions of risk. Those managers most likely to use weather and climate forecasts are those who have experienced weather and climate problems in the recent past; i.e., their heightened feelings of vulnerability are the result of negative experiences with weather or climate. The implication of this finding is that simply delivering weather and climate forecasts to potential users may not provide sufficient motivation for using the forecasts. Second, managers' concerns about weather and climate also vary with their physical context (water source, system size, and physical geography) and institutional context (the operational, financial, and regulatory setting). The implication of this finding is that assessments of vulnerability and information needs must consider the physical and institutional contexts of the resource systems and their managers. Third, if faced with weather- and climate-related problems, managers expect more difficulties with associated financial and regulatory issues than with their ability to procure water. Combined with the second barrier, the implication is that managers view weather and climate forecasts as more salient when put into the context of what they worry about––system operations and management needs. We conclude from this research that organizations providing information aimed at helping natural resource institutions manage the risks of weather and climate need to address the complexities of the organizational operations of those institutions. The most severe vulnerabilities of the institutions may not be to natural disasters or climate-induced resource scarcities, but to their inability to cope with natural disasters or resource scarcities simultaneously with other societal pressures and expectations. P-WE1.6Integrating Climate Information into Decision Making for Support of Water Management: A Protocol
Qi Hu, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, qhu2@unl.edu Roger Bruning, Department of Education Psychology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lisa Pytlik Zillig, Department of Education Psychology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Gary Lynne, Department Agricultural Economics, University of Nebraska-Lincoln Kenneth Hubbard, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln It was found that a major obstacle in using climate data products and predictions in water management decisions is how a product/prediction may be used in specific decisions. Although some applications are seemingly straightforward, such as using a prediction to decide if a future action is to take, correct and effective applications require much more than just taking the prediction and decide an action. Users often want to know an array of additional dimensions of a prediction before gaining confidence of how to use the prediction and if to use it in a decision, for example, if a prediction is valid for the area where a decision is to be made for, what is the probability for the prediction to be correct, if the prediction turns to be incorrect what loss it can bring to the users, and if the users may be able to absorb the loss and how they may make up for the loss. Besides these personal and financial concerns, community interest often also will affect decision makers in use of predictions, such as how a decision to use water at a decided amount may affect water availability to their neighbors (in drought situation, for example), and how his use may influence local water quality (e.g., in agricultural practice). In this intricacy of decision making, users need to know the scientific information as well as limitations in climate predictions and to have the skills to manage the uncertainty in the predictions while integrating them in specific decisions. Very few decision makers in water resources management and among agricultural producers (who use water in crop productions) have such knowledge and capacity, thus raising the needs for improving decision makers' knowledge and skills to effectively integrate climate predictions in decision-making. In this report, we will introduce a web-based protocol designed using the learning tool of ThinkAboutIt. This protocol will show and train decision makers how various climate data products and predictions may be used in water management decisions. In this education and training tool, a decision maker after specifying a water use decision will be presented with a list of weather and climate data products and predictions. He can chose to either view a prediction or to ignore to use any of the information and make the decision. After making a decision and justifying it, he will be provided with a "coach." The coach will explain each among the list of weather and climate products and how it can be used for the decision. After the coaching, the decision maker can revise his decision and justify it. A further iteration in this training is an "expert" in the protocol. The expert will provide additional perspectives of how and why certain products should be used in the decision and what consequences of a failed prediction might be mitigated to minimize losses. The decision maker is given another opportunity to revise his decision and give a justification. In this training process the user is shown the value and limitations of specific predictions and how they can be integrated with other factors in making specific decisions. Through such training and practice users will break the obstacle and gain both knowledge and confidence in using climate data products and predictions in water management decisions. Such gains will be measured from comparisons of the user revised decisions and justifications in the iterations of the training process. Expansions of this protocol to other decisions can help achieve the goal of transitioning the climate research results and products to positive decision outcomes and benefits to the society. P-WE1.7Infrastructure to Document Local Hydroclimatic Vulnerabilities to Climate Variation and Change
John Harrington, Kansas State University, jharrin@ksu.edu Brent Yarnal, Pennsylvania State University, Andrew Comrie, University of Arizona Colin Polsky, Clark University Climate change is a local problem. Anthropogenic climate change results from myriad human actions occurring in local places; people experience and respond to climate variations and change in specific localities. Data documenting local human causes and consequences of climate change is poor because of an inadequately developed scientific infrastructure. Consequently, the NSF/NOAA funded Human-Environment Regional Observatory (HERO) project is using three strategies to build prototype infrastructure for studying the long-term implications of climate variation and change at local scales. First, it is developing protocols for collecting, storing, reporting, sharing, and analyzing data. Second, it is building an intelligent networking environment for Web-based access, data management, and collaboration. Third, it is proving the HERO concept works by applying the protocols and intelligent networking environment to local climate change research problems at four human-environment regional observatories (HEROs) representing a diverse set of natural and human environments. The HEROs are located in the Arizona-Mexico border region, the High Plains of southwestern Kansas, the ridge and valley province of central Pennsylvania, and the restructuring manufacturing belt of central Massachusetts. To focus their proof-of-concept activities, the four HEROs are addressing the question, how does decision making affect the vulnerabilities of these places to hydroclimatic variation and change? Special attention is being given to three essential components of hydroclimatic vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Long-term drought presents a major exposure threat at the two western sites, whereas floods and short-term droughts present a significant risk in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts. Water quality issues are a major sensitivity in the humid eastern sites, but water quantity (availability) is the primary concern at the P-WE1.8Climate Information Needs for Decision Makers: Special Reference to Water
Leonard Berry, FAU Center for Environmental Studies, berry@fau.edu Lakhdar Boukerrou, FAU Center for Environmental Studies, edulboukerrou@ces.fau.edu In this presentation, we propose to discuss how decision-makers need to be informed about the impact of climatic change on water issues in Florida. As providers of information and decision-support, we will answer the following question: What information is needed by decision makers to make informed policy decisions? We will discuss the role of scientists in the dissemination of information to decision-makers. We believe that scientists need to generate and present information in a way that is easy to understand and can be translated into policy by decision makers. Our presentation will also highlight the relationship between water and other factors such as ecosystem and coastal changes. We are currently involved in compiling and evaluating information and methods available to address and support informed climate change decision-making processes and policies in Florida. We will present the efforts undertaken around the state in terms of information and methods being used to address the climate change issues. For example, is there a dialogue between scientists and decision- makers? Are they discussing the possible impact of climate change on water? Are decision-makers expressing to scientist their information needs to help them in policy development? What tools do decision-makers need to have at their disposal to properly deal with climate change issues and enact new laws related to water and its effects on the Florida ecosystems? At CES, we are in the process of assessing the decision-making needs in terms of management and planning capabilities of the state of Florida. CES is preparing a statewide conference to discuss the information available to and needed by decision-makers. The goal of this statewide forum is to identify current and future planning and decision-making needs based on climate change priority areas which might have an impact on water issues over the medium- and long-term. In our presentation, we will discuss the information available and needed for policy and decision-makers and how to introduce a new thought process to deal with the challenges of climate change in Florida. Our decision-support efforts are going to involve representatives from various local, state and government agencies, academic institutions and many other stakeholders (non-governmental organizations, business community, agriculture sector, etc.). This approach allows for the development of feedback and the definition of key issues in the decision-making process. Our forum will also play an important role in the assessment of the state of knowledge and the decision support resources available in Florida. P-WE1.9Adapting New York City's Water Supply and Wastewater Treatment Systems to Climate Change
David C. Major, Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, majorhart@earthlink.net Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Kate Demong, NYC Department of Environmental Protection Christina Stanton, Columbia University, Center for Climate Systems Research, christina.stanton@gmail.com The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP), the agency responsible for managing New York City's water supply and wastewater treatment systems, created an agency-wide Climate Change Task Force in 2003. The mission of the Task Force is to ensure that NYCDEP's strategic and capital planning efficiently take into account the potential effects of climate change—sea level rise, higher temperature, increases in extreme events, and changing precipitation patterns—on NYC's water systems. In addition to its adaptation activities, the Task Force is developing a GHG management program, using GHG inventory software to support mitigation efforts. The NYCDEP Task Force, in partnership with Columbia University's Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), is evaluating climate change forecasts, impacts, indicators, and adaptation and mitigation strategies to support agency decision making. A comprehensive framework for analyzing climate change has been created, including a 7-step Adaptation Assessment procedure. Potential climate change adaptations are divided into management, infrastructure, and policy categories, and are assessed by their relevance in terms of climate change time-frame (immediate, interim, and long-term), the capital cycle, and costs and other impacts. A wide range of potential adaptations has been examined, including integrated operations with other systems, storm surge barriers for wastewater treatment plants, and new design criteria for infrastructure that reflect non-stationary hydrologic processes. Climate change indicators have been identified to help guide the timing of adaptations. Task Force activities also include the development of downscaled climate change scenarios, the coordination of scientific projects to yield maximum benefit from research and development, and internal and external outreach through climate change workshops. For the NYC region, downscaled climate change scenarios are being simulated using the MM5 regional climate model. Mechanisms for updating these scenarios over time are being developed, using evolving climate information on trends and extremes provided by university scientists. As an example of science coordination, Columbia University is coordinating a multi-institution project that integrates scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, hurricane and nor'easter storm-surge modeling and a digital elevation program to estimate flooding risks to coastal infrastructure. NYCDEP is also a member of the European Union CLIME project, helping to develop integrated regional climate and water quality models to study climate change issues in its watersheds. To support its ongoing programs, the Task Force meets monthly; it also engages NYCDEP personnel through climate change science and planning workshops. P-WE1.10The Water Cycle Solutions Network
Paul Houser, Center for Research on Environment and Water, houser@iges.org Debbie Belvedere, University or Maryland, Baltimore County Earth is a unique, living planet due to its vigorous cycling, replenishing, transport, and transformation of water. Water is essential to life and is central to society's welfare, progress, and sustainable economic growth by serving as a resource for industry, agriculture, natural ecosystems, fisheries, aquaculture, hydroelectric power, recreation, and water supply. However, global water cycle variability which regulates flood, drought, and disease hazards is being continuously transformed by climate change, erosion, pollution, salinization, agriculture and civil engineering practices. Therefore, a national priority is to use our scientific knowledge to improve operational water cycle assessments, predictions & applications. NASA's unique vocation is to produce key scientific contributions using global observations from space and to exploit these contributions for improved Earth system monitoring and prediction. As such, NASA's Earth science programs have collected and archived substantial water cycle information archives and knowledge that must be integrated and reanalyzed to make decisive contributions toward solutions in all twelve national priority application areas. However, NASA alone cannot achieve the ultimate goal of improved operational environmental assessments, predictions and applications and therefore must establish collaborations with other research organizations, operational agencies, the scientific community and private industry. Therefore, we are developing a Water Cycle Solutions Network (WCSN) that will establish pathways and partnerships between NASA's vast water cycle focus area research investments and various decision support needs. We are developing the WCSN by engaging relevant NASA water cycle resources and community-of-practice organizations to develop what we term an "actionable database" that can be used to communicate and connect NASA Water Cycle Research Results (NWCRRs) towards the improvement of water-related Decision Support Tools (DSTs). An actionable database includes enough circumstances or facts about its nodes that connections and pathways between these nodes are identifiable and motivated. We are initially focusing on identifying, collecting information about, and analyzing the two end points, these being the NWCRRs and water related DSTs. We will then develop strategies to connect these two end points via innovative communication strategies, improved user access to NASA resources, improved water cycle research community appreciation for DST requirements, improved policymaker, management and stakeholder knowledge of NASA research and application products, and identifying pathways for progress. Finally, we will develop relevant benchmarking and metrics, to understand the network's characteristics, and to optimize its performance. The resulting WCSN is designed to improve the collective ability of water cycle scientists, managers and stakeholders to routinely harness NWCRRs to address crosscutting water cycle assessment, prediction & management challenges. P-WE1.11Demonstrating Land Information System (LIS) Decision Support Solutions
Paul Houser, Center for Research on Environment and Water, houser@iges.org Kristi Aresnault, University of Maryland, Baltimore County Christa Peters-Lidard, Goddard Space Flight Center David Toll, Goddard Space Flight Center The focus of this crosscutting integrated systems solutions project is to develop, demonstrate, and enable the use of land surface research results to address multiple national application solutions. Knowledge of terrestrial water, energy, and carbon conditions are of critical importance to real-world applications such as agricultural production, water resource management, flood, weather and climate prediction, hazard mitigation and mobility assessment. A huge volume of land surface states and fluxes are being observed on the ground or from space, including surface temperatures, vegetation conditions, snow states, albedo, longwave and solar radiation, precipitation, surface moisture, freeze/thaw state, runoff, total water storage and elevation, among others. The need to interpret and transition these NASA land surface research results into decision support solutions has motivated the development of the Land Information System (LIS). LIS incorporates the following functionality to enable this transition: a high-resolution capable land data assimilation system, involving several independent community land surface models, land surface data assimilation technologies, and integrated database operations for observation and prediction data management; a web-based user interface that accesses data mining, numerical modeling, and visualization tools. LIS has been recognized by many partner agencies as a valuable tool for translating and interpreting NASA's vast Earth observation resources into information useful for decision support. Therefore, this work is being conducted in response to requests by these partner agencies to prototype LIS solutions, demonstrate them in the partner's operational environment, and characterize LIS performance. In addition, the data assimilation capability provided within LIS enables the optimization of NASA Earth science research results in partner DSTs using Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). P-WE1.12Drought Monitoring in Oklahoma: A Collaborative Endeavor
Mark A. Shafer, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK, mshafer@ou.edu S. Arndt, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, Norman, OK Since the onset of an extended drought in 1995, the Oklahoma Climatological Survey (OCS) has been the key provider of precipitation-based drought assessments to state officials in Oklahoma. The decision-support system, designed collaboratively with officials at the Oklahoma Water Resources Board (OWRB), other state agencies, and U.S. Drought Monitor authors, uses real-time observations from the Oklahoma Mesonet to provide early detection of drought conditions. Key features of the system include:
Information from the system is included in the Water Resources Bulletin, which is produced by the OWRB each month and distributed to top agency officials, legislative leaders, and Governor's staff to keep them informed on drought status by region in Oklahoma. The drought decision-support system works so well because it was developed collaboratively between scientists and decision-makers. New products are added at the request of the decision-makers and prototypes are tested by these key user groups as new changes are implemented. OCS is working on expanding this system to a national basis, using daily information from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Network. P-WE1.13Applying Planetary Water and Energy Cycle Science and Observations
Rick Lawford, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, lawford@umbc.edu This talk will review the recent and potential contributions of relevant elements of three global science and observation programs for management decisions related to the development and use of water resources. The three programs include the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), the Integrated Global Water Cycle Observations (IGWCO) theme of the Integrated Global Observing Strategy Partnership (IGOS-P) and the water resources activities of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEWEX is a research program that has directed considerable effort towards the development of data bases at global and regional scales for use in the analysis of the climate system, in the development of prediction models in hydrology and meteorology and in the application of hydrometeorological sciences to water management. Currently, emphasis is being placed on the exploitation of these data bases, in combination with process understanding and modeling capabilities, to answer central questions regarding regional energy and water budgets and their response to seasonal variability. In addition, through its Water Resources Application Project and its Continental Scale Experiments, GEWEX is contributing to the local application of these global data sets in resolving water management issues. Contributions to this understanding are also coming through the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) which is currently launching a watershed project. The IGWCO was established by IGOS-P in 2003, to bring together international programs and national agencies to develop a framework for guiding decisions regarding priorities and strategies for the enhancement of water cycle observations in support of 1) monitoring climate variability and change, 2) effective macroscale water management and sustainable development of the world's water resources, 3) local societal applications for resource development and environmental management, 4) initialization of prediction models, and 5) priority water cycle science questions. IGWCO has been actively engaged in capacity building and linkages with the Global Water System Project (GWSP) and the Commission on Sustainable Development as part of its effort to achieve these goals. Plans are being developed strengthening water cycle observations and developing selected products that will be useful for water management. New approaches to water resources management are proposed through acceptance of the basic vision of IGWCO and the development of the requisite water cycle science, observational and modeling infrastructure. The presentation will also describe the most recent plans for addressing the Water Resources Societal Benefit Area Targets in the GEOSS Ten-year Implementation Plan. It is expected that GEOSS will provide a mechanism to support upgrading national observational networks and data management so they will meet the information needs of decision makers in the water sector. The talk will conclude with some discussion about ways in which these three international programs could more effectively support the decision support goals of the Climate Change Science Program. P-WE1.14Development and Presentation of Climate-Based Streamflow Forecast Tools
Richard Palmer, University of Washington Matthew Wiley, University of Washington, mwwiley@u.washington.edu The Central Puget Sound's Water Supplier Forum (The Forum) is a collaborative group of Washington state municipal water suppliers, hydropower utilities, and city and county governmental agencies that was formed in July of 1998. This organization seeks to develop sustainable water resources management that is responsive to Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Growth Management Act (GMA) requirements of Washington State while recognizing tribal and stakeholder interests. The Forum has contracted with the University of Washington to develop streamflow forecast tools for rivers in the Puget Sound area that provides water supplies to some 2 million people, serves as a critical habitat for several species of Pacific Salmon and provides hydropower production. One goal of this forecast system is to integrate traditional streamflows forecasts methods, such as Extended Streamflow Prediction or ESP, with recent advances in climate forecasting tools, to generate climate-based forecasts of stream flows and temperatures. A critical component of this research effort is the methods developed to convey climate and river forecast information to the interested parties in a manner that is both informative and timely for use in the ongoing decisional making process associated with system operation. To this end a Web-accessible forecast system, updated on a monthly basis, was developed to present river forecasts at a variety of locations. Streamflow forecasts are presented both graphically and in a series of probability tables. Additionally, a narrative description and summary of the current climate and river forecasts has been developed for distribution to decisions makers via e-mail. Frequent information exchange, between the University researchers developing the climate based forecast tools, and the decision makers who might benefit from these tools, has informed and influenced the forecast presentation methods. This exchange has also yielded valuable insight into how the climate forecasts are used to refine and support fisheries resources as well as serving as a decision support tool for drought management. P-WE1.15Water Supply Forecasting for the Western U.S.
Phillip Pasteris, USDA/NRCS Tom Pagano, USDA/NRCS The effects of climate change and variability are having a direct and significant effect on Western water supplies. Recent extremes in precipitation and temperature have provided challenges to the accurate prediction of spring and summer snowmelt runoff. Up to 80% of the West's water supply is derived from snowmelt, which supports 25.5 million acres of irrigated croplands providing annual production values in excess of $51.1 billion. Water availability also plays a direct role in water rights decisions, power generation and sales, endangered species management and county level drought declarations. This presentation focuses on the science used by the Natural Resources Conservation Service to create the water supply-based resource products used by tens of thousands of Western water managers. The presentation will also focus on new and innovative methods to improve water supply forecasts accuracy, new visually relevant products for resource managers and the integration of climate indexes and forecasts with water supply forecasting procedures. P-WE1.16Hydroclimatic Reconstructions for Decision Support in the Colorado River Basin
Connie Woodhouse, NOAA-NESDIS-NCDC Paleoclimatology Branch, Boulder, CO, connie.woodhouse@noaa.gov Robert S. Webb, NOAA-OAR Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO Gregg Garfin, University of Arizona-ISPE-CLIMAS, Tucson, AZ Brad Udall, University of Colorado CIRES-WWA The recent drought and its associated impacts across much of the western USA created a window of opportunity for collaborations between scientists and water resource managers. Drought severity, particularly in 2002, was unprecedented in many gage records, leading to the question: Does the gage record contain an adequate frame of reference for drought planning? Consequently, we developed partnerships with water management agencies in the Colorado Front Range, producing tree-ring based streamflow reconstructions to examine water management assumptions about drought. The reconstructions are now being used in Colorado water resources planning and management. Collaborative investigations with Arizona's Salt River Project are also incorporating tree-ring insights in decision making. In order to broaden the spatial scope and applications of paleoclimatic data in water resource management, we convened a workshop in May 2005 that brought together paleoclimatologists, hydrologists, climate scientists, and resource managers concerned with Colorado River Basin water supplies. We shared lessons learned through our partnerships and charted a course for future collaborations. Our water management partners made several presentations illustrating applications of paleoclimatic data to water resource planning. These provided a basis for discussions that addressed issues and needs related to the broader application of these data to water resources management. Workshop participants agreed on the value of tree-ring reconstructions for placing the instrumental record within a broader context of hydroclimatic variability and as decision-support resources for evaluating system reliability. Participants valued the two-way knowledge exchange between scientists and managers as a mechanism to improve scientists' understanding of decision-making concerns, as well as water managers' understanding of the science behind the data. For example, water resources managers routinely use probabilistic information, but need more transparent characterization of the uncertainties in the reconstructions. The workshop demonstrated that mutual understanding can reduce barriers to paleodata use in decision making. Needs identified by water resource managers have provided guidance for future activities and collaborations. Managers recommended additional workshops to provide (1) technical training for operational use of paleodata, (2) general information workshops for higher-level water resources decision-makers and their publics, and (3) online guidance documents and resources to make paleodata accessible for water resources applications. We plan to follow up on these recommendations in coordination with an advisory board of water management personnel. This presentation summarizes the workshop outcomes and ongoing activities, and examines the effectiveness of scientist-stakeholder workshops as a means to convey paleoclimatic information, foster collaboration, and enhance CCSP implementation. P-WE1.17California's Coupled Water and Energy Response to Climate Change
Norman Miller, UC-Berkeley NationalLaboratory, NLMiller@lbl.gov Larry Dale, UC-Berkeley National Laboratory Tariq Kadir, California Department of Water Resources During normal to wet years, up to 80% of California's fresh water is from Sierra Nevada snowmelt runoff, and during prolonged drought periods this resource is from groundwater storage. Historically, California's economy has relied heavily on groundwater recharge as a form of drought insurance. Groundwater recharge, which is sensitive to climate change, climate variability, and climatic extremes, is controlled by feedbacks between the atmosphere, land surface, and groundwater, and is impacted by conjunctive use and related electrical demands. Our research group at Berkeley Lab, in collaboration with the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR), is investigating physical and economic sensitivities of California's water system and related energy resources as a function of reservoir storage, groundwater recharge, and climate change and variability. The outcome of our findings is part of the CDWR's State Water Plan, a decision policy statement for future water planning. This work couples the physical system to economic pricing of electrical energy needed for groundwater water pumping and conveyance. We have designed a sensitivity experiment based on a series of drought scenarios ranging in duration from 5 to 30 years, with net precipitation decreases ranging from 5 to 75%. Understanding this range of drought scenarios within California's surface and groundwater system gives new insight to climate change impacts on California's economy. By developing 30 year drought scenarios with a range of precipitation reductions, we will have a representative climatology as an analogue to the projected 25 to 75% reduction in Sierra Nevada snowpack due to increasing near-surface air temperature. An outcome of this study is to provide the State with an analysis of simulations of the water storage-energy system with reduced uncertainties, with criteria for increased resilience and efficiency. In this presentation we provide details of our (1) analysis of the related changes in precipitation and temperature to changes in surface flows into reservoirs and groundwater flows into aquifers; (2) analysis of how changes in surface and subsurface storage management impact water supply to downstream agricultural and urban users and (3) analysis of how changes in surface storage practices impact hydropower generation and how changes in subsurface storage practices impact pumping electricity/energy demands. P-WE1.18The Role of Climate Change in Thermoelectric Cooling Water Systems
B. T. Smith, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, smithbt@ornl.gov A. W. King, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA M. L. Branstetter, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA C. C. Coutant, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA P. J. Mulholland, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA M. J. Sale, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA Climate change is expected to alter the meteorological, hydrological, and ecological regimes on which the performance of thermoelectric cooling water systems depends. It will affect the capacity of cooling towers, constructed ponds, and natural water bodies to transfer waste heat from steam condensers to the atmospheric boundary layer, and the cascading effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems (for example, reduction in fish habitat attributable to increased water temperature and decreased dissolved oxygen) may prompt new regulatory criteria for cooling water systems. We consider how utilities make strategic decisions about cooling water systems amidst climate change, evolving regulatory criteria, and evolving water management policies. We review studies of strategic decisions for cooling water systems based on operations simulations with historical hydrometeorological time series data. Climate change will add to the uncertainty of such analyses, and we discuss the magnitude of that uncertainty relative to other sources of uncertainty in cooling water simulations. Uncertainty of future greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources begets uncertainty in global climate model predictions, which are downscaled with regional climate models to yield prognostic localized hydrometeorological time series. Modeling compromises and assumptions in future climate predictions and downscaling methods introduce additional uncertainty into the process. We examine the value utilities place on climate change information for use in cooling water simulations with to study alternatives for adapting to changing environments. Utilities will adapt to climate change and other impetuses with the aim of maximizing cooling water system performance and, ultimately, dependable capacity, efficiency, and energy production of fossil and nuclear generating units. P-WE1.19Climate-Driven Increases in Extreme Heat and Energy Demand in California
Norman L. Miller, Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group, Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, NLMiller@lbl.gov Katharine Hayhoe, Department of Geosciences, Texas Tech University, hayhoe@uiuc.edu Jiming Jin, Atmosphere and Ocean Sciences Group, Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Summer temperatures in California under scenarios of future climate change are projected to increase considerably, accompanied by longer, more frequent, and more severe extreme heat conditions. These projections have important implications for energy demand in California, a region where suppliers are already challenged by growing population and increasing summer demand. Here, we analyze the potential impacts of rising temperature on California heat and energy demand based on projections from three atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) – HadCM3, GFDL, and PCM – forced with the IPCC SRES with higher (A1fi), mid-high (A2), and lower (B1) emission scenarios. By 2100, state-wide summer temperature increases range from 2-5ºC under the lower B1 scenario up to 4-8ºC under the higher A1fi scenario, with shifts towards more frequent extreme heat conditions occurring through changes in both the mean and variance of summer temperatures. Through Using observed correlations between energy demand and temperature, we then estimate the additional energy supply that would be required to meet CDD demands based on a sliding scale from 65ºF (the current-day definition) up to 75ºF (which simulates the potential role of adaptation). Without taking into account the competing effects of population increases, technological advances, or adaptation strategies, we estimate that by 2100 California could require more than 10,000 MW of additional power during peak summer days for residential cooling purposes alone, an amount that exceeds current-day California energy capacity by 17%. Based on these projections, future brownouts and blackouts may be more frequent, unless active prevention measures are taken and decision-makers today are informed of possible future change in order to implement mitigation and adaptation strategies. Such strategies could include anything from building more capacity (and its consequent feedbacks on the global climate system) to active prevention measures such as increased energy efficiency practices, conservation, and reliance on alternative energy sources. P-WE1.20Climate Change Impacts on California's Energy Security Planning
Steven Fernandez, Los Alamos National Laboratory, sjf@lanl.gov James Bossert, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Loren Toole, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Sam Flaim, Los Alamos National Laboratory Los Alamos National has traditionally supplied decision support tools and analyses to federal decision makers on problems of national security. The effect of climate variability and change on the security of the nation's energy supply is no exception to this long tradition. This presentation describes the combination of critical infrastructure models with climate change data as a novel example of this decision support. Many climate models have predicted temperature increases on a global scale due to the impact of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Questions remain as to the manifestation of climate impacts at regional scales where policy decisions can be most effectively implemented. A recent study by Hayhoe et al. have used downscaling techniques from global climate models to predict regional climate changes across California over the course of this century. The present study uses this downscaled temperature data to predict the increase in electrical demand and infrastructure bottlenecks that will develop in California over the 2005 to 2035 time frame due to predicted temperature increases of 1 to 2 deg. C. The results show that in the absence of climate change, population growth and economic expansion in California will require 57,000 Megawatts of new generation capacity and new construction must begin in 2022. A modest predicted increase in temperature of 1-2 degrees Celsius due to climate change, however, would increase the new capacity requirements to 68,000 Megawatts—costing an additional $64 billion per year (including fuel) and pushing up the construction start date to 2015. In addition, electricity price increases of 12% in real terms ($123 per megawatt-hour in 2035 in constant 2000 dollars) will occur. Federal and state government will require new regulatory and pricing policies to cope with these price increases. This example highlights the need by decision makers in the energy regulatory sector for accurate regional scale predictions over the time scale required for planning and siting new energy generation facilities, especially in our most stressed electrical markets. P-WE1.21Using Climate Models Output in Adapting to Climate Change
Joel B. Smith, Stratus Consulting Inc. Boulder, Colorado, jsmith@stratusconsulting.com Tom M. L. Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Among the most important reasons that managers of natural resources have found it difficult to incorporate the potential effects of climate change into long-term resource planning are the uncertainties about regional climate change and the long time horizon over which climate change will unfold. Many climate change impact studies have relied on a limited number of scenarios examining impacts as far ahead as a century from the present. For example, they might have one scenario with wetter conditions and another scenario with drier conditions far in the future. Natural resource managers have tended to find such information too uncertain and remote from the present to be useful for decision making. One way to help overcome these obstacles to incorporating climate change into natural resource management is to survey regional output from a large number of climate models. Such information can give a better indication about the range of possible changes in regional climate. Output from 17 models in the CMIP data base (Covey et al., 2003) were normalized so regional model outputs can be compared based on relative regional changes in precipitation and temperature. These models are compared on 5 x 5º grids in SCENGEN in order to assess the degree of agreement or disagreement across models regarding the sign and magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation. The climate model MAGICC (which is used in IPCC assessments) is used to estimate changes in global-mean temperature using different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, different climate model parameters (such as the climate sensitivity), and time (Wigley, 2004). Regional results from the climate models in CMIP are scaled by projected increases in global-mean temperature. MAGICC/SCENGEN can be used to estimate the probability of an increase in temperature or in precipitation at a regional scale. Results are applied to decision making in three cases: flood control planning in La Ceiba, Honduras; water resource planning in Limpopo Province, South Africa; and assessment of the possible impacts of climate change on skiing in Aspen, Colorado. In each case, we are working with decision makers to apply and interpret the outputs from MAGICC/SCENGEN to aid in planning for development of infrastructure, evaluation of adaptation strategies, and long-term resource use and management. MAGICC/SCENGEN is run within planning horizons for projects and resource management. It can provide information on the extent to which climate models agree or disagree about changes in temperature and precipitation. While such results should be used with caution, because model agreement could be fortuitous, nevertheless, this unique and comprehensive information can be useful in informing long-term natural resource management decisions. Covey, C., AchutaRao, K.M., Cubasch, U., Jones, P.D., Lambert, S.J., Mann. M.E., Phillips, T.J. and Taylor, K.E., 2003. "An overview of results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)." Global and Planetary Change. 37: 103–133. Wigley, T. M. L. 2004. "MAGICC/SCENGEN." Boulder, Colorado: National Center for Atmospheric Research. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/wigley/magicc/ P-WE1.22Climate Change, Water Resources and Food Security in Morocco
Mohammed-Saïd Karrouk, University Hassan II, Climatology Research Center (CEREC), BP 8220 Oasis, Casablanca, Morocco, CEREC@UnivH2M.Ac.Ma (unavailable to present in person) In the context of the global climatic change due to the natural and especially human activities (Greenhouse Effect), current climatic environment undergone a catastrophe of a new dimension due to the reheating of the terrestrial climate, which can violently disturb all the natural ecological systems almost and many structures and institutions from which humanity learned how to depend. If the climates only changed little up to now, the world is confronted, in the decades to come, with the prospect for a very strong acceleration of the climatic change. The conditions essential with the life such as it exists on ground are from now on in danger.
Drastic measures necessary should be undertaken to adapt to possible upheavals, which represent limiting factors for continuity in balance of the ecosystems and the socio-economic systems. |
|
