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Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Posters

Food Production (P-FP)

Sub-Theme 2: Regional International Applications

P-FP2.1

A Prototype, Scenario-Based, Decision Support System
for Integrating Food Security and Ecosystem Management in Jamaica

Greg Kiker, University of Florida, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., Gainesville, FL, USA, gkiker@ufl.edu
Mindy Kiker, Zama Environmental Inc, Gainesville, FL, USA
Arvin Mosier, University of Florida, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., Gainesville, FL, USA
Jim Jones, University of Florida, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., Gainesville, FL, USA
Igor Linkov, Cambridge Environmental Inc., Cambridge, MA, USA

The development of decision support systems to assist decision-makers and stakeholders in the science-policy-practice dialogue is one of the primary research objectives of the international research project "Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS). These decision tools support a fundamental GECAFS goal to determine strategies that create adaptive, food-secure and environmentally-resilient systems that successfully cope with the impacts of global environmental change. In this respect, food security is reflected in a variety of multi-disciplinary concepts including, food utilization (nutritional value, social value, food safety), food access (affordability, allocation, preference) and food availability (production, distribution, exchange). In constructing initial decision support methodologies and tools, researchers have combined aspects of scenario analysis and decision
support modeling.

Scenario analysis is a powerful way to think about uncertainty and risk. The methodology assists teams in analyzing past and present trends, detailing possible future developments, and using the insight they gain to explore potential actions designed to improve the current situation. The scenario analysis approach has been shown useful in a variety of contexts, including economic strategy, business development, and environmental management.

The Questions and Decisions™ (QnD™) screening model system was created to provide an effective and efficient, open-source, decision tool. QnD incorporates ecosystem, management, economics and socio-political issues into a user-friendly model/scenario framework. An initial decision support system (QnD: Jamaica) was created to explore the spatially explicit (parish-level) food, economic and population dynamics of rural and urban populations. QnD's object-oriented design structure allows iterative development of model components that can be easily changed as group learning occurs.

This paper describes how the QnD: Jamaica model was used with different global change scenarios to provide interactive future worlds for participants to explore potential policy actions. Initial scenario results show how the food security of various rural and urban populations can vary over time and space with respect to climatic and economic changes. At local-scales, adaptation options are limited for most resource-poor populations. This vulnerability highlights the need for systematic policy options that integrate food systems, economic and natural resource management.

P-FP2.2

Climate Change Impact on Food Security and Policy Adaptations:
A Synthesis from Selected African Countries

Tanveer A. Butt, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, tanveer@tamu.edu

Bruce A. McCarl, Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University

Greenhouse gas induced climatic change is portended to worsen climatic conditions in many developing countries. Agriculture, a critical part of the ecosystem, is particularly susceptible to climate change raising concerns about food security in developing countries. However, policy adaptations to the projected climate change can be critical in mitigating some of the adverse implications of climate change. Implementing adaptations would require a comparative assessment of the effectiveness of alternative adaptations across an array of agroecological conditions. This study considers climate change impact on agriculture sectors in Mali, Senegal, Uganda, and Kenya and presents an assessment methodology and results comparing effectiveness of alternative adaptations. A particular focus of this study is development of policy indicators relevant to decision makers' needs in developing countries and international donor community.

Little is known about potential of mitigative adaptations to climate change in developing countries. As the U.S. is a key player in the international donor community, the information in the presentation is relevant to U.S. decision makers regarding how climate change may impact developing countries and future food aid needs as well as future political instability. The presentation would contribute to priority settings for future CCSP research as the information generated from the study is an integral part of the decision over whether to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and in the international debate over burden sharing.

The authors are producers of climate impact information playing a role in U.S. and IPCC processes.

[Poster PDF]