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Page updated 5 December 2005 Call for Contributed Presentations
Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005) |
Abstracts for PostersDecision Support: Processes & Products (P-DS)Sub-Theme 1: Scientific AssessmentsP-DS1.1CCSP Poster on Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.2:
Thomas R. Armstrong, U.S. Geological Survey, tarmstrong@usgs.gov Joan Fitzpatrick, U.S. Geological Survey The Arctic and the high latitudes have warmed more rapidly than almost any other region on earth over at least the last millennia. This warming has been accompanied by a decrease in sea ice cover and thickness and a decrease in ocean salinity. In addition, the permafrost has melted significantly in recent years. The impacts on humans and ecosystems that are associated with these changes were recently reported in the Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment. This international study was partially funded by CCSP-participating agencies. The Arctic and High Latitude Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) will focus on the state-of-knowledge concerning past changes in the physical climate of this region. This information is vital since high latitude regions also are projected to experience the greatest warming in the future. The prospectus is currently being developed for this report and the bulk of the work will be carried out in FY 2006. The report developed during this assessment will include a conceptual framework from which both future research directions and related management actions can be addressed, vetted, and ultimately developed. The report will lead to a better understanding of the causes, interconnections, and feedbacks related to past, present, and future arctic and high-latitude climate changes and the physical responses that occur as a result of these events. This presentation will provide information concerning the scope of the SAP, key issues to be addressed, the scope of the intended audience, the SAP development schedule, the processes for its development, and opportunities for public input and scientific review. P-DS1.2Climate Projections for Research and Assessment Based on Emissions Scenarios
Hiram Levy, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, DOC/NOAA/OAR, Princeton, NJ 08542, Hiram.Levy@noaa.gov The Earth's climate system derives its energy from the Sun and any variations in the energy being received at the surface can change the climate. Variations can be caused by natural factors, such as changes in solar output and volcanic eruptions, or by anthropogenic changes in atmospheric concentrations of long-lived greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other radiatively active short-lived species. Computer simulation models of the coupled atmosphere – land surface – ocean – sea ice system are essential tools for understanding past climates and making projections of future climate resulting from radiative forcing changes, both natural and anthropogenic. Projections of future climate require estimates, e.g. scenarios, of future emissions of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other short live- species. A number of such standard scenarios have been developed for the IPCC Assessment process, and the future impacts of these have been explored. As part of the CCTP and CCSP process, updated scenarios of greenhouse gases and Atmospheric concentrations are being developed by Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1. Some of the likely topics which will be discussed in Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.2 include:
P-DS1.3CCSP Poster on Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.4: Risks of Abrupt Changes in Global Climate
Thomas R. Armstrong, U.S. Geological Survey, tarmstrong@usgs.gov The primary goal of the abrupt climate change research element of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is to provide decision-makers and the general public with a better understanding of the potential risks, causes, and ultimate impacts of future abrupt climate changes. This improved understanding will help in developing future climate scenarios and will lead to enhanced response plans to forcing-events that include global warming, sea-level rise, strong storms, floods, and droughts as just a few examples. Additionally, the science information garnered from this assessment will be critical in understanding the linkages between past and present abrupt changes, ecological thresholds, and the consequent short- and long-term ecological responses that may have profound impacts on the state and health of human populations and critical ecosystems worldwide. Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 3.4 will bring together and report on the current state of scientific information and our understanding of the processes and consequences of abrupt changes in global climate, and on the types of risks related to these events. The report from this effort will be used to build a conceptual framework within which both future research can be developed and related management actions can be addressed, vetted, and
ultimately used for better decision-making. Results from the report will lead to a better understanding of the causes, interconnections, and feedbacks related to abrupt climate changes and the physical responses that occur as a result of these events. The report will focus on synthesizing peer-reviewed studies that provide the best available science on abrupt climate changes, and also will compile and discuss the ramifications of studies that report on sudden climate changes and the associated ecological responses to their forcings. This presentation will provide information concerning the scope of the SAP, key issues to be addressed, the scope of the intended audience, the SAP development schedule, the processes for its development, and P-DS1.4National Academies Reports on Radiative Forcings and Climate Change Feedbacks
Ian Kraucunas, National Academies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ikraucunas@nas.edu Chris Elfring, National Academies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Amanda Staudt, National Academies Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Daniel Jacob, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington, Seattle, WA The National Academies produce over 200 reports a year, bringing the best available insights from science and technology to help inform public policy decisions. Two recent National Academies' studies, undertaken upon request from the Climate Change Science Program, have summarized the state of science, informed federal climate-change research agendas, and provided guidance to policy makers. The first, Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005), focuses on how the energy balance regulating Earth's climate is modified by human and natural perturbations, or "forcings," including greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun. The report supports decisions about future research agendas by identifying critical ways to improve understanding of forcings. In particular, further research is needed to better characterize the vertical and geographical distributions of forcings to account for climate impacts besides temperature in quantifying the relative impacts of forcings and to target critical uncertainties, such as those associated with forcing by aerosols. In addition, the report provides guidance for those who make policy decisions, including a recommendation that they consider potential impacts on climate forcings when developing air pollution regulations and land management strategies. The second report, Understanding Climate Change Feedbacks (2003), examines processes in the climate system known as "feedbacks" that can either amplify or dampen the system's response to forcings. Examples of important feedbacks include (1) those that affect the magnitude of climate change, particularly associated with changes in clouds, water vapor, the atmospheric lapse rate, ice albedo, the carbon cycle, and atmospheric chemistry; (2) those that affect the transient response of climate, mainly involving ocean heat uptake and circulation; and (3) those that affect the pattern of climate change, largely associated with land hydrology and vegetation. A substantial part of the uncertainty in projections of future climates is attributed to inadequate understanding of feedback processes internal to the natural climate system. The report guides the development of future research agendas targeted at improving understanding of these key climate feedback processes, focusing on efforts needed to better observe, understand, and model them. P-DS1.5CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.2: State-of-knowledge of Thresholds of Change that Could Lead to Discontinuities (Sudden Changes) in Ecosystems and Climate-Sensitive Resources
Jack Waide, U.S. Geological Survey, jwaide@usgs.gov William Hohenstein, U.S. Department of Agriculture Bryce Stokes, U.S. Department of Agriculture Jeff Amthor, U.S. Department of Energy Susan Herrod-Julius, Environmental Protection Agency Kenric Osgood, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Henry Gholz, National Science Foundation A primary goal of the Ecosystems research element of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is to enhance understanding of, and the ability to forecast, impacts of future climate change on ecosystems. Reports in the ecological and climate system literature document recent impacts of changing climate conditions on ecosystems, including changes in timing of species life history phenomena; alterations in the distribution of species; changes in spatial extent and distribution of ecosystems and in location of major ecotones; and alterations in ecosystem function or processes. Increasing focus is being placed on the existence and likelihood of threshold-type behaviors that could result in sudden changes in the responses of ecosystems. Such discontinuities in ecosystem behaviors are more difficult to predict, and are likely to result in more profound changes in human societies that depend on ecosystem goods and services. While the possibility of threshold changes in ecosystems are suggested by current ecological theory and models, and are documented in the paleoecological record, they are poorly understood. It is unclear under what circumstances such behaviors will occur in the future in response to climate change, as opposed to more gradual, continuous changes in ecosystems. Science and Assessment Product 4.2 will address and synthesize the present state of scientific understanding regarding thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities or sudden changes in ecosystems in response to climate change. The resulting report will develop a conceptual framework within which scientific results regarding sudden changes in ecosystems will be discussed. The report will focus on identifying and synthesizing peer-reviewed studies that provide the best available evidence to help define circumstances that are likely to lead to sudden changes in ecosystems or resources. The report will also synthesize studies that clarify specific difficulties in the ability to identify the likelihood of sudden changes in ecosystems as a consequence of climate change. The poster will provide information on the scope of the assessment to be completed, key issues and questions to be addressed, intended audience, assessment schedule, the process to be followed, and opportunities for public input and scientific review. P-DS1.6CCSP Poster on Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3:
William Hohenstein, Department of Agriculture Bryce Stokes, Department of Agriculture Jack Waide, U.S. Geological Survey Jeff Amthor, Department of Energy Susan Herrod-Julius, Environmental Protection Agency Woody Turner, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Paula Bontempi, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Ned Cyr, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Tom O'Connor, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Kenric Osgood, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Henry Gholz, National Science Foundation Phil Taylor, National Science Foundation The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3 will address the effects of climate change on agriculture, land, water resources, and biodiversity. The report will synthesize and evaluate what is presently known about the potential consequences of climate variability and change on major systems within the United States. The systems and selected attributes that will be addressed in this product include: agriculture, forests, freshwater ecosystems, marine ecosystems, species diversity, and at-risk ecosystems (e.g., high latitude or high altitude systems). Climate variables are linked to specific ecosystem responses through complex webs of interacting processes. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems and their constituent species and processes are complicated by the impacts of numerous human actions, including land use changes that fragment and degrade ecosystems at various spatial scales, pollutants, invasions of non-native species, and resource management and utilization practices. The report will address a number of issues, including: identifying climate-related stresses facing ecosystems in the United States and understanding how these stresses might change in the future, absent climate change; evaluating current and potential future monitoring systems to better detect ecosystem changes that are caused by climate change; and identifying adaptation options and strategies that could be used to mitigate and ameliorate current and future climate change related stresses. The poster will provide information on the scope of the assessment to be completed, key issues and questions to be addressed, intended audience, assessment schedule, the process to be followed, and opportunities for public input and scientific review. P-DS1.7CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4:
Susan Julius, EPA, Julius.Susan@epamail.epa.gov Bryce Stokes, USDA Bill Hohenstein, USDA Jack Waide, DOI Woody Turner, NASA Ed Sheffner, NASA Kenric Osgood, NOAA Ned Cyr, NOAA Climate is one of the dominant factors influencing the distribution and abundance of life on Earth. Changes in climate will interact with other anthropogenic stressors to determine the future condition of biodiversity and ecosystems. Such changes may mean risks of ecosystem disruption, species extinction, and loss of valuable ecosystem services. These risks can be reduced through management activities that facilitate adaptation and increase the resilience of ecological systems to climate change. Product 4.4 will identify and evaluate different adaptation options by describing the relationship between management decisions, ecological outcomes, and supporting scientific information. The assessment will provide information on the potential for adaptation interventions and research to help decision makers reduce the risks of those undesirable ecological outcomes associated with climate change. The poster will provide information on the scope of the assessment, key issues that will be addressed, the intended audience, the schedule for the assessment, the general process that will be followed, and subsequent opportunities for public input and scientific review. P-DS1.8CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.5:
Tom Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, wilbankstj@ornl.gov Jerry Elwood, U.S. Department of Energy, Jerry.Elwood@science.doe.gov SAP 4.5 will summarize the current knowledge base about possible effects of global change on energy production and use in the United States. It will survey and assess the available literature, including attention to findings from research about implications of climate variability on energy Although the prospectus for SAP 4.5 has not yet been submitted for public comment and revision, and its scope, questions, and approach may be modified to reflect comments received, the central questions to be addressed by SAP 4.5 are expected to be:
SAP 4.5 will be prepared and authored by staff from the DOE national laboratories, making every effort to identify and utilize all relevant sources. Under the oversight of a Coordinating Team, chapter authors will utilize professional networks, bibliographic information sources, and stakeholder input to identify relevant knowledge bases, direct and indirect; compile all available data in consultation with other experts in the public sector, the private sector, NGOs, and the academic research community; assess the available knowledge base using established analytic-deliberative practices, also in consultation with other experts; develop a summary of what is known and what is not yet known, along with possible priorities for improving the knowledge base; and produce a summary statement of conclusions as supported by the research evidence, along with an evaluation of levels of confidence represented by each statement. For the information of stakeholders and other interested parties, a web site for SAP 4.5 will contain full information about the assessment and the process, including the Prospectus, information about the authors and workshops, and—as appropriate—draft materials under review, with opportunities for readers to submit comments and questions. P-DS1.9CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.6:
Janet L. Gamble, EPA, Gamble.Janet@epamail.epa.gov Anne Grambsch, EPA John Houghton, DOE Lawrence Friedl, NASA Caitlin Simpson, NOAA The goal of Product 4.6 is to develop an interdisciplinary effort to examine linkages across physical, biological, and human systems in assessing the impacts of environmental change on human health and well being and to inform adaptations in the provision of public health and health care interventions. Health effects associated with global change are wide-ranging and occur via pathways of varying directness, scale and complexity. Timely knowledge of these effects can support the public health infrastructure in devising and implementing strategies to compensate or respond to these effects. This poster will outline the scope of the Product 4.6 Assessment, including key issues to be addressed and the intended audience. The poster will also include a time line for the preparation of Product 4.6 and an overview of the process that will be followed, including opportunities for public and scientific review. P-DS1.10CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 5.2: Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making
M. Granger Morgan, Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, granger.morgan@andrew.cmu.edu Uncertainty is ubiquitous in addressing all aspects of the climate problem. To assist the climate research and decision making communities to characterize and deal with uncertainty, M. Granger Morgan1, together with Hadi Dowlatabadi2, Max Henrion3, David Keith4, Robert Lempert5 and Thomas Wilbanks6 are developing a report that will outline available tools and strategies and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. The current draft outline is as follows:
Once the authors have completed a draft it will then be subjected to extensive review by the research community and other interested parties. 1Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University; P-DS1.11The National Academies: Informing National Decisions on Climate and Global Change
Gregory Symmes, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council, The National Academies, GSymmes@nas.edu The National Academies have been providing independent, objective advice to the nation on issues of science, technology, and medicine for over 140 years. Advice is provided through consensus reports prepared by committees of experts—all whom serve without pay. Members of study committees are selected to ensure that they have an appropriate range of expertise, a balance of perspectives, and are screened for conflicts of interest. Study committees gather information in public meetings but carry out their deliberations and prepare draft reports in private to avoid political, special interest, and sponsor influence. As a final check on the study's quality and objectivity, all reports undergo a rigorous, independent review by external experts. Recent and ongoing Academies' studies to inform the evolution of the science research agenda in key areas of climate and associated global change include:
Recent and ongoing Academies' studies to inform national policy and adaptive management decisions related to climate and associated global change include:
In addition to these studies, both the Climate Research Committee and the Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change convene numerous forums for dialog and facilitate communication on climate and associated global change issues among the U.S. research community, agency leadership, and key international scientific programs. P-DS1.12Lessons Learned from Decision Support Processes in Place-based Settings
Janet Gamble, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, gamble.janet@epa.gov Frances Sussman, ICF Consulting Susan Julius, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Randy Freed, ICF Consulting John Furlow, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Melinda Harris, ICF Consulting Jordan West, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Continuing the place-based assessments initiated in conjunction with the first National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, the Environmental Protection Agency has launched three second-phase projects in the Great Lakes, the Mid- and Upper-Atlantic, and the Gulf Coast. While the initial assessments focused on identifying impacts of climate variability and change, Phase II of the assessments is designed to examine decision processes and develop information and decision tools to support adaptation to those impacts. These assessments are The regional assessment teams are led by Michigan State University for the Great Lakes; Pennsylvania State University for the Mid- and Upper-Atlantic, and Texas A&M University for the Gulf Coast. Each regional assessment team is taking a different approach to producing decision-relevant information. The Great Lakes study is focusing on developing decision analytic tools to support decisions associated with specific sectors (tourism and agriculture). The Mid-Atlantic study has the dual focus of developing and providing region-wide information via an interactive website and developing location-specific decision support tools. The Gulf Coast is focused on understanding the mechanics of decision processes associated with environmental challenges such as climate change that have significant uncertainties, and the factors that contribute or detract from the use of scientific information in actual decisions. This presentation will focus on the lessons EPA has learned from these assessments about how to produce more effective and relevant scientific information and tools for decision makers. Areas that will be discussed include the ways in which scientific information flows and how it is used by different stakeholders to support decision making, what types of information are needed, what level of confidence decision makers have in various information sources, and how specific tools and information can be developed to address decision makers' needs more effectively. This presentation addresses the CCSP's interest in the type of information that decision makers and other stakeholders need to inform decision making and provides some insight on opportunities for improving the application of currently-available information and priorities for future CCSP research. P-DS1.13Meeting Societal Needs: Regional Integrated Assessments in Support of Decision Making
Amy Luers, Union of Concerned Scientists, aluers@ucsusa.org Peter Frumhoff, Union of Concerned Scientists Susanne Moser, National Center for Atmospheric Research Over the past seven years the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) has worked with independent experts in the global change research community to assess and communicate the projected impacts of climate change across three regions of the U.S.—California, the Great Lakes, and the Gulf Coast. The reports from each of these assessments continue to be used by local, state and regional decision makers in related management and policy initiatives. We attribute the success of these assessments in motivating and supporting climate-related decisions to four factors: (1) credibility, attained both through scientific peer-review and by engaging local scientific and community leaders; (2) regional relevance of assessment focus areas; (3) accessible presentation of the results to non-technical audiences; and (4) wide communication and distribution of the report to the media, the public, civic groups, and public officials. The paper will describe lessons learned from this assessment process, focusing primarily on a recent assessment in California, and the associated public briefings and ongoing outreach activities. The larger lessons drawn from these assessments are how credible scientific analysis combined with concerted efforts to reach the public, resource managers and policy-makers can help meet the evolving needs of decision-makers as they seek to implement appropriate societal responses to climate change through mitigation and adaptation measures. We also make recommendations on how such lessons might best be applied to a reinvigorated effort by the federal government to provide a comprehensive assessment of the effects of global change on the natural environment, human health and welfare, agricultural, and other specified areas, as mandated to be completed on a P-DS1.14A Synthesis and Outreach Program on Climate Variability and Change Research
Lindsey Rustad, USDA Forest Service, rustad@maine.edu Roger Cox, Canadian Forest Service Marc Deblois, Gouvernement du Québec Jeffrey Dukes, Univ. of Mass. Andrew Richardson, Univ. New Hampshire Barry Rock, Univ. New Hampshire Mark Watson, NYSERDA Norman Willard, U.S.E.P.A. A new program on: A Synthesis of Climate Change Research in the Northeastern U.S. and Eastern Canada has been initiated in July 2005. The goals of this 2 year program are to (1) summarize the accumulating climate variability and change research on northern forest ecosystems in the region, and (2) make this summary available to policy makers, land and resource managers, stakeholders and the interested public. The program goals will be accomplished in a three-phase process. Phase 1 will involve a survey of end-users (including state and provincial agencies and governments, NGO's, land managers, education organizations, and industry) to assess what type of information would be most useful and relevant, and what format(s) would be most accessible. Phase 2 will involve a scientific synthesis of climate variability and change research in the region, resulting in a peer reviewed paper suitable for a journal such as BioScience or PNAS. This document will include (1) a review of the historical record of climate within the region, (2) environmental indicators of this past climate change, (3) updated climate projections for the region, (4) current research on these issues within the region, (5) ecological implications of this change for the northern forest, and (6) future scientific research needs. Phase 3 will translate this document for the nonscientific community. Results from Phase 3 will be disseminated to the appropriate stakeholders as a Forest Service General Technical Report (GTR), a web site, and fact sheets. This project is unique in that it will (1) update the work done for the New England Regional Assessment, (2) include the northern forest regions of Eastern Canada as well as the northeastern United States, and (3) focus primarily on the northern forest ecosystem. |
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