CCSP Workshop, November 2005 Abstracts Session 4: Ecosystems Management: Application of Climate Science (EC), Sub-Theme 1: Ecosystems Decision Support and Adaptive Responses
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CCSP Workshop, November 2005 Abstracts Session 4: Ecosystems Management: Application of Climate Science (EC), Sub-Theme 1: Ecosystems Decision Support and Adaptive Responses |
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Page updated 5 December 2005 Call for Contributed Presentations
Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005) |
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Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4Ecosystems Management: Application of Climate Science (EC)Ecosystems Decision Support and Adaptive ResponsesEC1.1The Role of Climate Science in U.S. Crop Insurance
Thomas P. Zacharias, National Crop Insurance Services, Overland Park, KS, tomz@ag-risk.org This presentation will address the role of climate science in U.S. crop insurance primarily from the perspective of private crop insurance carriers. The presentation will begin with a brief description of the U.S. crop insurance market, providing the distinction between federally supported crop insurance and traditional crop-hail insurance both provided by private carriers. The presentation will then focus on the types of underwriting and actuarial decisions routinely faced by the industry. Perceived information and research deficiencies in the current system will be discussed. The presentation will conclude with an assessment of the economic utility of climate science on the future of the industry. EC1.2Providing a Science-Practice Interface to Decision Makers through Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) Decision Support System Research
Arvin Mosier, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Jim Jones, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Steve Sonka, National Soybean Research Center, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, USA Greg Kiker, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept., University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA John Ingram, GECAFS International Project Office, NERC Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmar, UK Mike Brklacich, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario K1S 5B6, Canada A relationship exists between current socioeconomic and environmental conditions and food security, and highlights the importance of the vulnerability of the food systems that underpin food security to future scenarios of changed conditions. It also shows how policy and/or technical adaptation options designed to cope with the added stresses that GEC will bring to current food systems leads to adapted food systems; and that adaptation options will, in turn, feedback to socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Improved Decision Support Systems (DSS) are needed to help structure and enrich a dialogue on the nature of GEC/food systems issues between the research and policy communities, to help identify possible options to adapt food systems to the additional stresses GEC is bringing, and to assess the nature of feedbacks to the socioeconomic conditions and to the Earth System from possible adaptation options. DSS methods need to be established to enhance communication between GEC/food systems researchers and end-users to help guide the production and interpretation of information to help decision making. DSS is one of the major research areas of Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS), an international research program involving a wide range of social, physical and biological scientists, investigating the vulnerability of human food systems to, and interactions with, Global Environmental Change (GEC). The GECAFS goal is "To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security." DSS can help frame the necessary science-policy dialogue to deliver science and policy products appropriate to achieving this goal. In particular, GECAFS research aims to help in designing and interpreting more quantitative analyses of tradeoffs between environmental goals (including limiting deleterious feedbacks to environmental conditions and the Earth System) and developmental goals (including maximizing positive feedbacks to socioeconomic conditions). To this end, the overall GECAFS DSS framework will be used to assist in issue identification, information retrieval, scenario development and evaluation, and policy exercises that depend on multi-stakeholder negotiations and role playing. Initial GECAFS research in the Caribbean Region is using the Questions and Decisions (QnD) screening model system as one of the tools to help explore potential policy options related to food security, economic development and environmental management. [Presentation: PDF ] EC1.3Active Fire Observations from MODIS to Support Decision Making
I. Csiszar, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, 20742 Maryland, USA C.O. Justice, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, 20742 Maryland, USA J. Descloitres, Science Systems and Applications, 10210 Greenbelt Road, Lanham, 20706 Maryland, USA D. Davies, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, 20742 Maryland, USA L. Giglio, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, 20742 Maryland, USA; Science Systems and Applications, 10210 Greenbelt Road, Lanham, 20706 Maryland, USA R. Sohlberg, Department of Geography, University of Maryland, 2181 LeFrak Hall, College Park, 20742 Maryland, USA The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the polar orbiting Terra and Aqua satellites of the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Earth Observing System (EOS) has channels specifically designed for active fire detection. The MODIS Fires and Thermal Anomalies product has been generated systematically since late 2000 for use by resource managers, policy makers and the scientific community. The standard product includes an active fire and cloud mask, the Fire Radiative Power (FRP), quality assessment information and extensive metadata. Rigorous validation of the product is underway using coincident fire observations from higher spatial resolution sensors, yielding limits of detection and commission and omission error rates that are communicated to the users in the product documentation and peer-reviewed publications. An integral part of the MODIS fire program is the customized packaging and distribution of information for a wide range of users worldwide. In the U.S. a major operational partner is the USDA Forest Service. The MODIS Land Rapid Response System (MLRRS) was created to provide a rapid response to Earth science events, particularly quick information turnaround for fire management in the form of imagery and text files providing the location and limited auxiliary information of hot spots. A MODIS Web Fire Mapper, including web GIS maps, has also been developed as part of an outreach program to the fire applications community. Software for generating MODIS fire products has also been distributed for use in a number of operational regional monitoring systems based on direct broadcast MODIS data. The data record has been processed into global spatially and temporally aggregated datasets applicable for large-scale multi-year analysis and decision making. MODIS fire data have also been used as source data for fire emission EC1.4Assessing Impacts of Changing Land Use, Climate and Atmospheric Chemistry on Forests of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed
Richard Birdsey, USDA Forest Service, rbirdsey@fs.fed.us Yude Pan, USDA Forest Service Eric Sprague, The Conservation Fund John Hom, USDA Forest Service Kevin McCullough, USDA Forest Service The Chesapeake Bay watershed is protected by 21 million acres of forest cover. These forests remove ground-level ozone from the atmosphere to provide cleaner air, and retain deposited nitrogen to help maintain the water quality of the Chesapeake Bay and its estuaries. As long as the forests remain healthy and productive, and are not significantly reduced in area, the ecosystem services they provide will be sustained. Significant threats include land use change, climate change, and increasing exposure to ozone and nitrogen deposition. Land-use change has caused significant changes in forest cover throughout the watershed. Combined with prospective changes in species composition induced by climate change, effects of land-use change on watershed-scale biogeochemistry are significant. Under current conditions, Chesapeake Bay forests retain 88% of deposited nitrogen, allowing only about 1 kg/ha/yr to leach into more sensitive aquatic ecosystems. As the level of deposition rises, the retention rate declines dramatically because forest ecosystems under current N deposition are close to N saturation. As a consequence, the negative effects on downstream ecosystems increase. One positive consequence of nitrogen deposition is increased productivity of forest ecosystems that are deficient in nitrogen availability. Net carbon uptake by forests of the Mid-Atlantic region may be increasing by 23% from nitrogen deposition. The increasing concentration of atmospheric CO2 also is a factor that increases productivity by 11%; however, this rate of increase is largely compensated by ground-level ozone pollution, which is damaging to many plant species. To assess these threats and evaluate potential responses, we integrate data from extensive forest inventories and EC1.5Designing Wetland Conservation Strategies under Climate Change
Jiayi Li, Penn State University, jzl120@psu.edu Elizabeth Marshall James Shortle, Penn State University Richard Ready, Penn State University Carl Hershner, Virginia Institute of Marine Science Wetland conservation is a major environmental concern in the Chesapeake Bay region. Substantial losses due to land development and other factors have had profound impacts on the Bay's aquatic resources. Current conservation efforts fail to account for the impacts of climate change on sea level, which can affect the success of conservation efforts. Land use controls are essential to effective wetlands conservation. This study develops a methodology for evaluating public wetlands conservation investments that takes climate change into account, and demonstrates the methodology for the Elizabeth River watershed in Virginia under plausible sea-level rise and land use scenarios. Given the large uncertainty about the non-market values of wetlands, we use a cost-effectiveness analysis framework as the fundamental structure of our study. Two measures of effectiveness are considered in our study. One is the total amount of wetlands. The other is related to the wetland functions. We use a tool for wetlands identification and planning that was developed by the Chesapeake Bay Program. The tool uses information on wetland type, surrounding land use, and external influences to generate scores for five major wetland functions: habitat provision, water quality improvement, flood protection, bank stabilization, and sediment control. Because it is essentially impossible to confidently predict the future sea level rise and land use, we develop scenarios that establish probable upper and lower bounds on future conditions. Sea-level rise scenarios are constructed using projections for the southern Chesapeake Bay region and local information. We use 4 to 12 inches sea-level rise for 2030. We also construct land use scenarios for the area by considering land use change drivers and comprehensive plans for the region. The current landscape is represented as a regular grid of cells of 25 acres each. A revised cellular automaton (CA) model is used to generate development vulnerability indexes for all the cells within the watershed. Strict CA articulate the growth (or change) process in terms of highly localized neighborhoods where change takes place purely as a function of what happens in the immediate vicinity of any particular cell. But in our model, we identify four major drivers that influence the development possibility for each undeveloped land cell. The four drivers are immediate vicinity (8-cell neighborhood) land use, distance to shoreline, distance to primary roads, and distance to population centers. Three land use scenarios developed in our study, compact, dispersed, and nodal, are based on the development concepts used in the 2026 Comprehensive Plan of the City of Chesapeake, Virginia. We assign different weights to the four drivers to reflect the three land use scenarios. A random term is also added for each cell in order to capture influences other than the four major drivers. Based on literature and local information, we assign Markov transition probabilities to the land uses within the watershed. We rank all the available undeveloped land cells based on their development index and convert a certain percentage of them into developed land cells according to the transition probability we set. Because of the existence of the random term, we can run the Monte Carlo simulation to generate future land use scenarios. Three management strategies are considered. The first allows private landowners to erect protection structures at the landward existing wetlands and has higher elevation than the wetlands. In this case, when sea-level rises, the wetlands can migrate inland to survive. The third relocates wetlands strategically by public acquisition of low value and low elevation lands for restoration. Candidate restoration sites are identified based on whether the present landscape still retains features that allowed it to support wetlands in the past. We use the results of the protocols for implementation of a GIS-based model for the selection of potential wetlands restoration sites in southeastern Virginia. The decision-making process we consider for wetland management strategy 2 and 3 is a parcel-based discrete-time process. At the beginning of each five-year time period, for each undeveloped land parcel, decision-makers need to decide whether to buy, not buy, keep, or sell. Under different scenario combinations, we use discrete stochastic sequential programming (DSSP) to model this process and compare different wetland management strategies. The objective of our DSSP model is to minimize the costs of the wetland management strategy. We consider the costs of buying the undeveloped land and the wetland restoration costs. In our study, the prices of undeveloped land are modeled as a function of the development indexes. One important advantage of DSSP is that it allows for explicit consideration of the a priori known probabilities of uncertain events. In the DSSP framework, we consider two types of uncertain events that may affect the decisions. One is the acquisition of new information about sea-level rise. We assume that new climate information will become available every five years. We simplify the information as indicating low or high sea-level rise and arbitrarily assign probabilities for them. The other type of uncertainty arises from the development probability of each undeveloped land parcel. It is necessary to consider this uncertainty, because when decision-makers consider whether to buy an undeveloped land parcel during any future time frame, they need to consider information about the likelihood that parcel will still be available. These probabilities are derived from the Monte Carlo simulations described earlier. Sensitivity analysis is conducted for important parameters of the model. The CPLEX module of GAMS is used to solve the DSSP problem. Base case values for important parameters are specified, under which compact and dispersed land development scenarios incur similar expected costs. The wetland conservation goal cannot be satisfied if nodal development scenario occurs. The result indicates that nodal development pattern should be avoided in order to reach the goal of wetland conservation. Sensitivity analyses are conducted for development percentage, high SLR probability, real land price appreciation, discount rate, budget constraint of stage I, and wetland restoration costs. Considering the base case result and the sensitivity analysis, compact and dispersed development scenarios are equally desirable while nodal development scenario should be avoided. Our study provides a methodology for assessing wetland conservation strategies that takes climate change into consideration. We believe that sea-level rise is an important issue which affects the success and effectiveness of wetland protection efforts because of the low-lying feature of wetlands. This methodology can be applied to other areas with some adjustments based on local situations. Value of information (VOI) estimates can also be easily extracted from the framework presented in our study. EC1.6A Tool for Screening Projects for Risks from Climate Change
Ian Noble, The World Bank, inoble@worldbank.org Fareeha Iqbal, Consultant Each year the World Bank reviews and initiates some hundreds of projects, many of which deal with activities that are likely to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change. Examples include loans or grants to improve irrigation systems, expanding rural infrastructure, agricultural reconstruction schemes or ecosystem conservation projects. The design teams encompass a wide range of skills but those skills usually do not extend to specialists in climate change and its potential impacts. ADAPT is an assessment and design tool that provides a simple, non-threatening and quick way of assessing development projects for potential sensitivities to climate change. The tool is based on expert assessment of the threats and opportunities arising from climate variability and change. It provides a summary of the climate trends and projections at the project site; identifies components of the project that might be subject to climate risk; explains the nature of the risk; suggests options for reducing the risk and provides documents and contacts to help project designers follow up on any identified risks. Essentially, the tool mimics an initial consultation with a climate change expert. The tool is intended for project team members, both within the World Bank and within client countries, who do not have specialized knowledge of climate change issues. A prototype tool has been developed and tested with potential users through a series of focus groups. A final version is under construction with an initial focus on agriculture, water and rural infrastructure issues. However, the approach and the software (based on Microsoft EXCEL and Visual Basic) is applicable to a much wider range of themes. The knowledge bases held within the tool are open ended and can be extended for particular regions or for new issues. EC1.7Ocean Climate Decision Making Systems for Predicting Catch in Pelagic Fisheries
Mitchell A. Roffer, Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc., Miami, Florida 33155, roffers@bellsouth.net The development of three decision making systems for understanding and predicting catch variability in pelagic fisheries will be presented. Target species and fisheries include dolphin fish (Coryphaena hippurus) in the oceanic waters off South Carolina, king mackerel (scombermorus cavalla), sardine (Sardinella aurita), and gag grouper (Mycteroperca microlepis) in the coastal waters off southwestern Florida, and blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) in oceanic waters of the Bahamas. Satellite derived oceanographic data products (primarily sea surface temperature and ocean color from NASA and NOAA satellites) are being used to identify and define quantitative relationships between the distribution of fish and their apparent preferred habitats within their ecosystems. Evaluation of the development and coherence in time and space of such physical and chemical discontinuities as ocean frontal boundaries (temperature, chlorophyll, turbidity, etc.) related to coastal plumes, Gulf Stream circulation features (e.g. meanders and eddies), and water mass location is a critical aspect of this research. Part of this study is the development of image processing and visualization tools to evaluate and merge data that exist in different spatial and temporal resolutions, as well as, different spectral bands. This research involves a partnership between private industry (scientists, as well as the recreational and commercial fishing industries), two state agencies ( South Carolina and Florida), and an academic institution ( University of South Florida). An evaluation of what research, climate data products, and tools are needed to advance the development of decision making tools and systems in fisheries will be considered. EC1.8The Implications of Climate Change in the Management of Vulnerable Species:
George M. Durner, USGS, Alaska Science Center, 1011 E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, AK 99503, USA, george_durner@usgs.gov Steven C. Amstrup, USGS, Alaska Science Center, 1011 E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, AK 99503, USA David C. Douglas, USGS, Alaska Science Center, 1011 E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, AK 99503, USA Gennady I. Belchansky, Institute of Ecology, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia Geoffery York, USGS, Alaska Science Center, 1011 E. Tudor Rd., Anchorage, AK 99503, USA Ryan Nielson, WEST, Inc., 2003 Central Av., Cheyenne, WY 82001, USA Trent McDonald, WEST, Inc., 2003 Central Av., Cheyenne, WY 82001, USA Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are a universal symbol of Arctic ecosystems. They are part of the traditional lifestyles of coastal indigenous people in the Arctic, and as the apex predator, they are an indicator of the health of Arctic marine environments. All aspects of the life history of polar bears are tied to the sea ice. Our studies in the Beaufort Sea show that during winter and spring, polar bears prefer shallow ice covered waters over the continental shelf near the shear zone. As the ice melts in summer, most polar bears retreat deep into the polar basin where they utilize the stable perennial ice. This forces some polar bears to swim long distances to reach the offshore pack ice. Polar bears return to near shore waters with the formation of new ice in autumn. We have documented major changes in sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean over the past 25 years including longer summer sea ice melt seasons, larger areas of ice-free water in summer, and decreases in total sea ice volume and coverage of multiyear ice. These changes will likely have population-level implications for polar bears including reduced access to preferred forage habitats, reduced availability of stable sea ice denning habitats on sea ice, and increased wave-induced coastal erosion of preferred terrestrial denning habitats. Finally, loss of sea ice habitat may lead to a greater frequency of negative encounters between polar bears and humans. Polar bears of the western population in Hudson Bay, Canada, have already shown negative signs of a warming environment. If the current trend of diminishing sea ice continues, a 30% decrease in the world population of polar bears is anticipated within 50 years. But the short-term effects in regions like the Beaufort Sea are difficult to project because the food chain could be stimulated by increased solar absorption into the ice-free ocean during summer. Presently, the U.S. Geological Survey is leading a research study to ascertain how polar bears of northern Alaska are responding to the recent changes in Arctic sea ice conditions. Managers require knowledge of the effects on body condition, recruitment, population structure, and distribution in order to predict population level impacts of these changes. Given the current Arctic warming trend, a reevaluation of population status is necessary to ensure that fundamental management issues regarding subsistence and sport hunting, and industrial activities and tourism, are supported by sound science. EC1.9TNC's Adaptation Efforts in Conservation Landscapes: Models for Federal Land Managers?
Earl Saxon, The Nature Conservancy Bill Stanley, The Nature Conservancy Sam Pearsall, The Nature Conservancy, SamPearsall@tnc.org The Nature Conservancy follows three models when allocating resources to prepare conservation landscapes for the impacts of climate change. We support 1) ad hoc efforts by individual site managers, 2) hypothesis-testing experiments in "sentinel ecosystems" - those likely to experience abrupt transitions and 3) climate-adaptive action at our most "treasured places." Here, we present examples of each approach to implementing climate-adaptive strategies that maintain ecosystem services without loss of biodiversity. We also assess their decision support needs and their effectiveness in engaging other landholders. Without compatible management practices, individual managers may take short-term actions that inadvertently foreclose long term climate-adaptive options that would benefit all. Ad hoc efforts are effective where established land management practices are successful. Programs for invasive species, fire, and/or sustainable resource use can be modified to anticipate trends in climate and climate variability. Where existing ecosystem disturbances are not well managed, the challenge of tackling climate change is much greater. Successful local managers influence their peers by example. Hypothesis-testing experiments in "sentinel landscapes" identify the vulnerability and resilience of landscapes and the thresholds at which they will radically change. Landscapes such as coastal wetlands subject to sea level rise and arctic tundra subject to permafrost melt can not be managed in the long term for the preservation of their existing conservation or use values. They are managed to ensure a transition to valued and productive landscapes. Scientific discoveries are shared through peer reviewed literature, workshops and working groups of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature and the Convention on Biological Diversity. Our Treasured Places Network will comprise high-profile freshwater, marine, forest, grassland, and arid land sites important to biodiversity and to humans. At each place we will bring together private landholders, public agencies, experts from universities and botanical gardens and climate change scientists to identify and manage climate-related risks. Importantly, participants will disseminate information on impacts and adaptation to inform and motivate policy changes. TNC is the largest private conservation landholder in the US, but our success in managing climate risks depends on our ability to engage private, state and federal landholders in similar efforts. Individual landholders can pursue ad hoc efforts and hypothesis-testing experiments, but protection of the places we individually treasure requires all the actors in those landscapes to work together. EC1.10Linking Health and Environmental Data in a Public Health Surveillance System
Doug Rickman, NASA/MSFC, doug.rickman@nasa.gov, Douglas.L.Rickman@nasa.gov Amanda Sue Niskar, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Judith Qualters, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Dale Quattrochi, NASA/MSFC Maury Estes, Universities Space Research Association Ashutosh Limaye, Universities Space Research Association William Crosson, Universities Space Research Association Mohammad Al-Hamdan, Universities Space Research Association The National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network will establish a national network of local, state, and federal public health agencies to tracks trends in priority non-infectious health effects. Around 2009, when fully functional, the national EPHTN will be an early warning system for the rapid identification of adverse health events related to environmental sources. NASA's Earth-Sun System science results and EPA data provide available information on the environmental contribution to chronic disease and predictive value based on coupled Earth system-chronic disease models. Environmental public health tracking is the ongoing, systematic collection, integration, analysis, and interpretation of data about the following factors: 1 - environmental hazards, 2 -human exposure to environmental hazards, and 3 - health effects potentially related to exposure to environmental hazards. To satisfy the definition of a surveillance system the data must be disseminated to plan, implement, and evaluate environmental public health action. As part of EPHTN the Environmental Health Tracking Branch, Division of Environmental Hazards and Health Effects, National Center for Environmental Health (NCEH), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is developing Health and Environment Linked for Information Exchange in Atlanta (HELIXAtlanta). This effort is demonstrating a process for developing a local environmental public health tracking (surveillance) network. This effort is a classic illustration of, "The process is the product." HELIX-Atlanta follows standardized CDC practice in design and implementation of a surveillance program. This modality is the analog of NASA system engineering approach, but designed to meet the realities of epidemiology. The project has five discrete teams working with existing information systems to answer public health practice inquiries received from the public, policy-makers, and other stakeholders. Each team is integrating one or more existing health databases with selected environmental data. Several of the teams are examining air quality measures obtained from both EPA monitoring sites and from satellite estimates. Another environmental data source of interest is "skin" temperature from satellite. None of the environmental data sources are well suited for public health surveillance, but they are adequate to prove concept and methodology. They are also superior to the alternative of doing nothing. A sixth team, "Outreach", is charged with identifying target audiences and designing products and protocols specific to each audience. |
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