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Now available in PDF format: Abstract Book [7.4 Mb] (posted 10 November 2005)

Abstracts for Speakers: Session 4

Coastal Management: Application of Climate Science (CO)

Sub-Theme 1: Climate and Coastal Infrastructure: Applications and Information Needs

CO1.1

Climate and Coastal Communities: Improving the Decision-Making Process

Eileen L. Shea

This paper will provide an overview of the consequences of climate variability and change for coastal communities and resources and explore opportunities to improve the use of climate science information to support decision-making. The author will provide a quick review of the key coastal impacts identified in the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and including:

• Direct impacts on ecosystems and communities (e.g., coastal inundation associated with sea level rise, increased ocean temperatures);
• The challenges of protecting public safety and critical coastal infrastructure in the face of climate-related extreme events (including tropical cyclones, droughts and floods); and
• The implications of climate-related changes in the availability of freshwater resources for coastal communities, ecosystems and key sectors such as agriculture, fisheries and tourism.

The author will use examples from Pacific Islands to highlight the ways in which information about year-to-year climate variability (e.g., ENSO) is already being used today to support decision-making in key sectors. The author will then explore some of the important lessons learned from this decade-long experience with ENSO-based climate forecast applications and as well as recent community-based climate vulnerability assessment and adaptation efforts in Pacific Island coastal communities as they relate to improving the use of climate information to support decision-making.

In this context, the author will attempt to identify some possible guiding principles for future climate science to support decision-making including, for example, the importance of:

• A collaborative, participatory process involving both the providers and users of climate information;
• A problem-focused approach to understand vulnerability and guide the design and development of climate information products;
• Place, context and history in understanding vulnerability;
• Contributing to community-based climate assessment and adaptation efforts as well as traditional international scientific assessments;
• Focusing on enhancing the resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems as an underlying objective;
• Addressing climate-related changes along a continuum of timescales from extreme events through seasonal-to-interannual variability to long-term changes such as sea level rise in order to meet today's needs as well as plan for the future;
• Developing and sustaining an integrated program of observations, research, modeling, assessment and education/outreach; and
• Taking an integrated perspective on the climate-environment-society system that recognizes cross-sectoral impacts, linkages and opportunities.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.2

Using Paleotempestology in Support of Decision Making
Under Uncertainty of Hurricane Climate Variability

Kam-biu Liu, Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, kliu1@lsu.edu

A major advance in hurricane climate science during the past decade is the development of paleotempestology, a new field that studies past hurricane activity by means of geological and archival techniques (Liu, 2004; Liu and Fearn, 1993, 2000). Climate scientists, risk managers, reinsurance companies, and other stakeholders have used data from paleotempestology to inform their decision-making about hurricane risks along the U.S. coasts.

For any particular coastal location, uncertainty about the hurricane risk is exacerbated by the lack of reliable information on the return period of the rare but most extreme hurricanes. For example, it is impossible to determine, based on the historical record, whether landfall by a category 5 hurricane such as Andrew or Camille in New Orleans is a 100-year or 500-year event, because New Orleans has not been directly hit by a catastrophic hurricane during the past 150 years. Paleotempestology can quantify that uncertainty by generating long-term empirical records of catastrophic hurricane strikes that span up to 5,000 years, which can be translated into an estimate of hurricane return periods and landfall probabilities. The most useful proxy data have been overwash sand layers found in the sediments of coastal lakes and marshes.

Paleotempestology helps to quantify the hurricane risks on both the temporal and spatial dimensions. Proxy records from five sites along the Gulf coast have shown that each site was directly struck by catastrophic hurricanes about 9-12 times during the last 3800 years, implying a return period of approximately 350 years, or a landfall probability of about 0.3% per year. Data have also revealed that hurricane activity on the Gulf coast has varied on the millennial timescale, with a relatively quiescent period during the past 1,000 years preceded by a hyperactive period about 1,000-3,800 years ago. The much higher landfall probability during the hyperactive period—about 0.5% per year—may define the upper limit of hurricane risk within the spectrum of uncertainty for the Gulf coast. Furthermore, recent research from Cape Cod suggests that, over the past 3,000 years, hurricane activity in the Atlantic coast has exhibited an anti-phase pattern with that of the Gulf coast. The anti-phase pattern may be explained by long-term changes in the position of the Bermuda High and the NAO. Thus, paleotempestology can also help to generate hypotheses about climate mechanisms controlling past and future hurricane activity, and to predict hurricane risks under different scenarios of future climate changes.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.3

Sea Level Rise: A Trendy Perspective

Len Pietrafesa, North Carolina State University, len_pietrafesa@ncsu.edu

Dave Dickey, North Carolina State University

Lian Xie, North Carolina State University

For the past 21,000 years sea level has been rising, overall, globally. While there are regions where the rate of post-glacial isostatic rebound exceeds the rate of oceanic rise, the overall evidence is for a modern rate of rise that is second in magnitude to that of the estimated rate during the period from 15,000 to 7,250 years before present and equivalent to that from 7,250 t0 5,550 years before present. This study reports on several new findings. One is a new mathematical method to compute reliable coastal trends from tide gage data time series. The second is to demonstrate that the rise of coastal sea level will increase coastal surge and extent of inland flooding while reducing the time for inundation to occur. The third is to demonstrate that the annual rise and fall of coastal sea level is a significant ocean basin phenomenon. Finally, storm induced surface gravity waves impacts are greatly enhanced with rising sea level. The modern rate of rise poses challenging problems for coastal developers, planners, managers and policy makers as coastal regions are exploding with people and housing. This report provides data dependent information to help coastal communities better plan for the present and future.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.4

Informing Decision Makers of the Potential Impacts of Sea Level Rise
on the Coastal Region of New Jersey, USA

Michael D. Beevers, Princeton University, mbeevers@Princeton.edu

Matthew J.P. Cooper, Princeton University

Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University

Increasing rates of sea level rise caused by global warming are expected to lead to permanent inundation, episodic flooding, beach erosion and saline intrusion in low-lying coastal areas. Sea level rise is a significant and growing threat to the coastal region of New Jersey, USA and this study presents a comprehensive assessment of the expected impacts. We project future sea level rise based on historical measurements and global scenarios, and apply them to digital elevation models to illustrate the extent to which the New Jersey coast is vulnerable. We also characterize potential impacts on the socioeconomic and natural systems of the New Jersey coast. We then suggest a range of potential adaptation and mitigation opportunities for managing coastal areas in response to sea level rise. Our findings suggest that where possible a gradual withdrawal of development from some areas of the New Jersey coast may be the optimum management strategy for protecting natural ecosystems.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT] 

CO1.5

Overview of Information Needed to Adapt to Rising Sea Level

James Titus, US EPA, Titus.Jim@epamail.epa.gov

Rising sea level alters the consequences of many coastal decisions—but that does not necessarily mean that it justifies making a different decision than one would make if the sea was not rising. Consider, for example, a new house: If rents will cover the cost of construction after 10-20 years, the house is worth building even if sea level rise is expected to submerge the house 50 years hence.

The decision on floor elevation may be more sensitive: Adding one foot to the floor elevation might extend the life another 50 years—but doing so increases the construction costs, and would require residents to climb two more steps every time they enter. This extra cost is probably not great enough to prevent most people from adding a foot to the floor elevation if the only alternative is losing the house in 50 years. But the house could be elevated later, so today's decision is whether to add a foot to the elevation now, or defer the decision until later.

Governments must often consider the cumulative impact of many individual decisions: Are the benefits from higher elevations so great that a township should take the decision out of the hands of property owners and impose a higher standard? Or does extending the lifetime of coastal homes actually conflict with environmental goals, e.g., removing homes as the sea rises allows wetlands to migrate inland, otherwise these ecosystems will be lost. Are these issues isolated effects that can be addressed in a few cases—or are they so widespread or important that categorical policies are needed?

This presentation examines the information needs of four classes of decisions responding to sea level rise [author's role in brackets]:

• Elevation of existing homes [property owner]
• Local infrastructure responses to sea level rise [analyst]
• Conservancy protection of coastal ecosystems at sea level [analyst]
• Federal and state regulatory policies to protect natural shorelines [analyst]

For each of those decisions, the presenter will examine the importance and adequacy of each of the following types of information:

• Causes: Scenarios and probability distribution of future sea level rise;
• Effects: coastal elevations and shoreline sensitivity to sea level rise;
• Alternative responses:
  • Identification
  • Costs and Consequences
  • Governmental hurdles and inducements.
• Other Factors:
• Science communication
• Stakeholder capacity to digest the information.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.6

Sea Level Rise and Ground Water Sourced Community Water Supplies in Florida

John Furlow, furlow.john@epa.gov

Randall Freed, rfreed@icfconsulting.com

Susan Herrod-Julius, Julius.Susan@epamail.epa.gov

The EPA Global Change Research Program is investigating the possible effects of climate change on water quality. Global average sea level is rising more rapidly as a result of climate change, posing risks to estuaries, aquifers, wetlands, lowlands, beaches, and infrastructure.

Florida is home to roughly 17 million people, over 90% of whom are receive drinking water from groundwater sources. In order to determine if the state's groundwater-sourced water supplies might be vulnerable to rising sea levels and saltwater intrusion, we developed a vulnerability screening tool based on the DRASTIC vulnerability index. DRASTIC, developed by EPA and the National Water Well Association, identifies vulnerability to contamination from the surface based on seven measures (depth to aquifer, recharge rate, etc.) We modified the index to measure vulnerability to lateral salt water intrusion and added new factors such as proximity to the coast. We obtained data on the location of drinking water systems and the factors included in the DRASTIC index from the Florida Drinking Water Administration, and applied our modified index. In addition, we developed a "value" score for each system based on the number of people served and the availability of alternative sources of water; a system serving a large population with only one source of water would be high value; a system serving a small community with alternative supplies would be low value.

The presentation will cover preliminary findings for Florida and discuss how the scoring system could be applied in other coastal areas with
appropriate modifications to account for data availability.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.7

Context and Climate Change: Lessons from Barrow, Alaska

Ronald D. Brunner, Center for Public Policy Research, University of Colorado, Boulder,

Amanda Lynch, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Monash University, Australia

James Maslanik, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder

With NSF funding, we have sought to help Barrow, Alaska, adapt to problems of climate change and variability by expanding the range of informed choices for the community. After exploratory discussions in Barrow in August 2000, we focused on the community's vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding as the outstanding problem from the community's standpoint. Since then we have reported our findings at least annually to community leaders and the public through meetings, lectures, and radio interviews, and have sought their guidance for further research.

Our approach is intensive: centered on one community; comprehensive, incorporating the full range of factors affecting Barrow's risk and vulnerability; and integrative, emphasizing interactions among these factors in a series of extreme events including the most damaging, the great storm of October 1963. Extreme events provide a common focus of attention for diverse community members and researchers from different scientific disciplines. The payoffs are indicated by community members' willingness to continue collaborating with us, and in their decisions and actions informed by our research: an emergency management exercise based on the 1963 storm, platting an evacuation route inland, locating a new hospital site outside the 1963 flood area, designing the Barrow Global Climate Change Research Facility to withstand a storm of that magnitude, and fuller consideration of alternatives to additional beach nourishment, including planning and zoning, relocation, and retrofit of the utility corridor.

Our intensive approach also suggests reconsidering the connections between science, policy, and decision-making structures. First, profound uncertainties are inherent in unique interactions among the many factors affecting local risk and vulnerability. Science cannot significantly reduce these uncertainties, but can reconstruct and update local trends, clarify underlying dynamics, and harvest experience for policy purposes. Second, sound policies to reduce vulnerability must incorporate these profound uncertainties and multiple community values though rational decision processes, ones capable of evaluating policies as events unfold, terminating mistaken policies, and building on successes. Third, the community itself is in the best position to understand its own context, to decide on sound policies, and to take responsibility for them. In short, context matters in adapting to
climate change and variability.

Overall, cognitive constraints may be the most important human dimension in climate change decisions. To make the most of our limited cognitive capacity, future research might factor the global problem into more tractable local problems, and help local communities network to diffuse and adapt the best working solutions.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.8

Climate Change and Coastal Cities: Information for Decision Making

Roberta Balstad, CIESIN, Columbia University, roberta@ciesin.columbia.edu

W. Christopher Lenhardt, CIESIN, Columbia University, clenhardt@ciesin.columbia.edu

There are few information resources on the impacts of climate change and climate variability in urban coastal areas. This paper will report on a project that sought to fill that gap in a heavily populated, major urban center, the New York metropolitan area. This metropolitan area encompasses 31 counties across three states and has a coastline of nearly 600 miles. The project had two major components. The first was focused on research both into the information needs of metropolitan managers, policy and decision makers, and residents in the tri-state metropolitan area and into their patterns of information seeking and use. The second component was to apply this information in the construction of an on-line information resource focused on climate change impacts in the region. This system, the Climate Change Information Resources-NYC (or the CCIR-NYC), was from the start intended to serve not just as an information resource for the New York region, but also as an extensible prototype that can be updated and expanded as needed and can serve as a model for the delivery of information on climate change and variability and their impacts in other urban coastal areas. The CCIR-NYC can be found at http://ccir.ciesin.columbia.edu/nyc/.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]

CO1.9

A Resource Manager's Perspective on Applications and Information Needs

Susan Snow-Cotter, Director, Massachusetts Coastal Zone Management Program, susan.snow-cotter@state.ma.us

Coastal resource managers at the state and federal level make decisions related to the development, protection and restoration of the coastal zone within their jurisdictions. To make wise decisions, these managers need information on a variety of parameters related to climate change. The purpose of this presentation is to both identify the types of information needed by coastal and marine resource managers to make decisions as well as to provide feedback to scientists about the application of their research to the management community. The presentation will draw on and summarize the preceding presentations papers in the coastal component of Session 4.

[Presentation: PDF | PPT]