Overview of the
Climate Change Science Program
By Richard H. Moss, Director
US Global Change Research Program Office
Presented at the U.S. Climate Change Science Workshop
Tuesday, 3 December 2002, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel

Note
Bracketed items refer to slides in the separate Microsoft  Powerpoint presentation.

Good morning Admiral Lautenbacher, Dr. Mahoney, colleagues, and distinguished participants.

[Title slide] I am appearing before you this morning in my capacity as Executive Director of the US Global Change Research Program. I started my responsibilities as director in May 2000, and since that date have spent a great deal of time and energy on activities that are now embodied in the draft strategic plan.

[This presentation...] Dr. Mahoney has already described the relationship of the USGCRP and the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI), launched by President George W. Bush last year. My role this morning is to give an overview of the research and products we are proposing to develop. I will begin by describing the mission of the Climate Change Science Program and the process through which the strategic plan has been developed. Next, I will describe the essential features of the program, including (1) near-term (i.e., 2-4 year) research and decision support resources focused on climate change, (2) long-term research on additional global environmental changes, and (3) management approaches for balancing and integrating research across the diverse agencies and departments of the Federal government that participate in the CCSP. Finally, I will conclude by mentioning some topics on which we are particularly looking forward to receiving comment, knowing full well that the discussions this week will not be bounded by anything that I might highlight this morning. We anticipate and welcome a wide-ranging debate during the next few days.

[CCSP mission] As Dr. Mahoney has described, the CCSP seeks to provide a useful return to society for its investment in research. Meeting this challenge defines the mission of the CCSP, which simply put is to "Provide science-based information on climate and global change to inform public debate, policymaking, and management of natural resources." In order to carry out this mission, the program will need to integrate information about climate, ecological systems, the economy, and the energy system.

[Science-based questions...] The program needs to fulfill its mission for a broad range of issues currently the focus of societal debate and decisionmaking. Let me note briefly some of the issues that seem particularly important.

[Resource Management...] In addition to national policy issues, decisionmakers and resource managers are confronting questions about development and management of climate-sensitive resources. Observations of current conditions, forecasts of climate phenomena such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, and even projections of longer-term variability and change, can be useful to a variety of managers and planners, if focused on a specific decision context and conveyed in ways that describe both the extent and limits of knowledge. Some examples of applications of global change information already underway or under development include:

[CCSP Science for Society...] The aspiration of the CCSP to provide decision support resources to inform societal debate and decisionmaking is depicted in this simple flow chart, which illustrates some of the key "inputs" that we will draw on, some of the decision-support resources and other "outputs" that we are planning to deliver, and some of the societal "outcomes" that we hope to facilitate. The inputs include research in the core areas of the program focused on relevant questions, and supporting observations and modeling activities. The decision support resources include reports and findings on high priority topics, scenario comparisons and evaluation, and tools and methods to support resource management, including enhanced access to observations and other information.

[Both Focus and Breadth...] Providing information for societal debate and decisionmaking on these national and resource management issues will require the CCSP to include both a near term focus on climate change as well as a long-term focus on the full range of global change research issues. This dual challenge of developing focus while maintaining breadth has been a recurring theme of the reports about the USGCRP from the NRC over the past decade. The Climate Change Research Initiative provides a focus on near-term climate-change deliverables. The ongoing Earth systems research of the USGCRP provides attention to global change issues that will require sustained research for more than 2-4 years, as well as the future development of applications of research to decisionmaking.

[Earth system cartoon] This stylized depiction of the Earth's global environmental systems is a composite of several figures used in the IPCC's Third Assessment Synthesis Report. It is intended to illustrate some of the many factors and sub-systems that must be addressed to understand the response of components of the Earth system to natural and human forces. The CCRI will accelerate progress on some parts of the system, particularly a number of atmospheric components associated with understanding climate change. But research will need to continue on all aspects of the Earth's environment, for example on surface hydrology, on the global carbon cycle including its ocean component, on ecosystems, and on alterations to the land surface. These all affect climate at global to regional scales. And they all have intrinsic importance.

[Strategic Plan Development...] Before describing the approach taken in the strategic plan, I want to say something about the process used to prepare it. It is intended to illustrate some of the many factors and sub-systems that must be addressed to understand the response of components of the Earth system to natural and human forces. The CCRI will accelerate progress on some parts of the system, particularly a number of atmospheric components associated with understanding climate change. But research will need to continue on all aspects of the Earth's environment, for example on surface hydrology, on the global carbon cycle including its ocean component, on ecosystems, and on alterations to the land surface. These all affect climate at global to regional scales. And they all have intrinsic importance.

[Strategic Plan Development...] Before describing the approach taken in the strategic plan, I want to say something about the process used to prepare it.

The research community, under the auspices of the National Academy of Sciences, has provided a great deal of input to the development of the program over the past decade. Several NAS reports have been particularly important to the overall framing of this plan, including  Research Pathways (1999), The Science of Regional and Global Change (2000), and Answers to Key Questions (2001). In the future, the Academy will play an important role in evaluating this draft of the plan and the open comment process we are beginning today. We thank the members of the Committees and Boards that provide this crucial advice.

The plan was drafted by Federal scientists and research program managers. The draft underwent several rounds of internal review and revision. I commend and thank the Federal scientists and managers for their work and creativity.

This workshop is part of the effort to openly debate the program and its focus. Additional public comments will be provided in the weeks following the workshop and accepted up to mid-January. Once comments have been sorted and evaluated, the CCSP will revise the draft plan before completing the draft and submitting it to Congress and the National Academy, as required under the terms of the 1990 Global Change Research Act. We will work to make this process as transparent as possible.

[Overview...] The draft plan itself is structured in three parts. Part I  describes near-term decision support related to climate change, with emphasis on deliverables over the next 2-4 years. Part II  describes global change research focused on additional global environmental changes. As required by the program's enabling legislation, this part of the plan has a ten-year focus.  Part III of the plan describes communications, international cooperation, and the management approaches that have been identified to help coordinate and integrate the activities of the diverse agencies and departments that participate in the CCSP. Let me review these in slightly greater detail.

[Climate Change Focused Decision Support] Part I, the climate-focused decision support component, includes three major areas of activity:

[Research Focused on Three...] The first area of activity, described in chapter 2  of the draft plan, includes research focused on three key climate change questions:

[Climate Quality Observations...] The second activity included in Part I will improve climate-related observations, monitoring, and data management systems. The questions include:

[Decision Support Resources] The third area addressed in Part I is development of decision support resources for national policy and resource management over the next 2-4 years. Included are activities that focus on:

Each of these areas will be subject of discussion in breakout groups.

[Broad, Ongoing Earth ...] Part II of the plan focuses on global change research. It includes all the major components of the Earth's global environmental systems and meets the requirements of the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which defines global change as: "changes in the global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth to sustain life." Part II includes plans for 8 interdisciplinary research elements, including:

Each element addresses 3-6 high-level questions that have both societal and scientific importance. For each of these questions, the plan includes a brief description of the current state of knowledge, illustrative subsidiary research questions, inputs that are required to make progress, and products that will result from the research on different time scales. Important linkages with other national or international programs are highlighted at the conclusion of the chapter describing each of these research elements. In some cases there is overlap with the climate-focused decision support activities described in Part I. But this overlap is intentional and is designed to provide continuity for ongoing research that exceeds the 2-4 year focus on the CCRI described in Part I. Part II builds on the USGCRP of the 1990s but develops important additional capabilities. Greater attention to deliverables and products is a response to the President's management agenda.

[Climate Variability...] As an example of the types of questions addressed in the research elements, I will briefly highlight the top-tier questions addressed in the climate variability and change research element. These include: