Purpose and Structure of the
U.S. Climate Change
Science Program
By James R. Mahoney, Ph.D.,
Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
& Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program,
Presented at the U.S. Climate Change Science Workshop
Tuesday, 3 December 2002, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel

GREETING AND THEME

James R. Mahoney, Ph.D., Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program Good morning again, ladies and gentlemen. We are honored and pleased that so many of you have elected to participate in the workshop -- we are committed to making it worth your while. Nearly 1,300 climate scientists, technologists, stakeholders and other specialists have registered for this workshop, from almost every one of the fifty United States, and from more than thirty other nations. We extend a special welcome to our international visitors; we aim to continue the full collaboration of the United States with the broad international community addressing climate change issues.

I am pleased to begin our dialog in this workshop by describing the origins and purposes of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, and by placing the goals and guidelines for this workshop in the context of the overall Climate Change Science and Climate Change Technology Programs conducted by the United States.

First, I wish to state two themes for this workshop:

The status of the entire earth and climate system is a capstone issue for our generation and will continue to be so for our children. The Administration fully embraces the need to provide the best possible scientific basis for understanding the complex interactions that determine the constantly changing nature of our earth's life systems. Ultimately a new generation of technology, not yet developed or commercially demonstrated in most cases, will likely be needed to achieve a long-term balance between the lifestyle aspirations of the global population and the protection of essential earth systems.

The thirteen federal agencies sponsoring the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, together with the Administration's senior science and policy leaders, intend that this workshop serve to accelerate the application of basic climate research to the evaluation of response strategy options. This is consistent with the President's call to focus on the profoundly important -- and challenging -- science, technology and public policy questions that we need to address.

Comprehensive evaluation of climate change response options requires a basis of credible, transparent and comprehensive scientific and technological information, and this workshop has been specifically designed to meet this need:

The workshop is focused on a discussion draft version of the new strategic plan for U.S.-sponsored climate and global change research; the draft plan was prepared with a specific emphasis on the key questions to be resolved in order to develop effective public decisions about climate change.

The workshop itself is an entirely open public discussion, and we have invited the international scientific and stakeholder communities to participate in all parts of the workshop. We thank you all 1,300 of you for your participation in the workshop. Moreover, approximately 225 of you have designated roles in the workshop, including presenters, moderators, rapporteurs, and designated response panelists. Over half of the designated panelists were selected from among those of you who asked to speak during the specialty sessions. We invited the remaining panelists with a view toward assuring the most diverse expression of views possible during the workshop.

Each of the 24 specialist sessions has time reserved for open questions and comments from the floor.

All of the panelist presentations and the rapporteur summaries will be posted on the www.climatescience.gov web site for public review. Moreover, we are arranging an audio web cast of all the sessions during the workshop; this will be archived on the same web site, for public reference and use.

We invite all interested persons, whether attending the workshop or not, to place written comments on the draft strategic plan on the web site, up to the cutoff date of January 13, 2003. We will consider all comments in developing the final version of the strategic plan, scheduled for April 2003, which will guide the federal research program during the next several years.

At the request of the government, the National Research Council has appointed a 17-member expert committee who will play a special review role for the strategic plan and workshop process. We welcome and thank the NRC committee, whose members include physical and social scientists and economists. The committee has reviewed the draft strategic plan; they are participating in this workshop; they will review the public comments posted on the web site; and they will issue two reports during 2003 expressing their conclusions and recommendations regarding the objectivity, quality and comprehensiveness of the draft and final versions of the new strategic plan, and regarding its implementation.

Following the April 2003 completion of the new strategic plan, the Climate Change Science Program will focus on the reporting of findings, analyses and projections of climate change outcomes to the interested national and international communities. We plan to report findings using the same open and transparent approach as adopted for this workshop. The goal is for the Climate Change Science Program to achieve credibility as "fact finder" on the challenging issues associated with characterizing, mitigating and (where necessary) adapting to climate change.

The strategic plan being reviewed in this workshop recognizes that the essential research questions range from the detection and characterization of climate change causes; to improved protocols for global measurements, data management and trend analysis; to evaluation of technologies for mitigation and adaptation; and finally to projections and intercomparisons of future scenarios that focus on a triad of important outcomes: earth system impacts, economic impacts and energy system impacts. The potential ecosystem consequences of global climate change, as well as the potential economic and energy consequences of candidate mitigation actions, are so significant -- both for developed nations like the United States, and even more importantly for developing nations -- that governments need to search for optimal policies that mutually enhance environmental, economic and energy security for all nations.

BACKGROUND ON THE U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE

The U.S. Global Change Research Program, well known to many in this audience, was launched as a series of research initiatives in 1987, and was codified by the Global Change Research Act, which was signed into law by President George H. W. Bush in 1990. To date, over $20 billion of research funding has supported the USGCRP, which has contributed significantly to the international body of research, monitoring and computer modeling of global change over the past 15 years. The USGCRP is continuing its major role in the exploration, discovery and analysis of global change phenomena, and is sharing this research with the entire world community.

In May 2001, the Bush Administration asked the National Research Council to provide an updated evaluation of key questions about climate change science, in view of the body of research developed by the international climate science community, with specific reference to the recently completed Third Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The findings of the NRC Committee on the Science of Climate Change, reported in June 2001, continue to guide the development of the focused climate research and technology programs announced by President Bush in same month of June 2001. I quote briefly from the summary statement in the NRC report:

"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that some significant part of these changes is also a reflection of natural variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are expected to continue through the 21^st century."

In the spirit of open inquiry, and in demonstration of the need to establish an agreed base of information, I expect that this workshop will receive comments that challenge the NRC summary statement in both directions: from those who believe that it is not appropriately supported by available data, to those that believe that it is insufficiently forceful in view of available data and analyses.

I also quote from a June 2001 statement of President Bush, responding to the NRC report:

"Addressing global climate change will require a sustained effort, over many generations. My approach [i.e., the President's] recognizes that sustained economic growth is the solution, not the problem -- because a nation that grows its economy is a nation that can afford investments in efficiency, new technologies, and a cleaner environment."

President Bush took several steps to address climate change issues in June 2001, including setting a new challenge to the climate change scientific and technological communities. He created the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) and the parallel National Climate Change Technology Initiative (NCCTI), and asked the technical specialists to take on new responsibilities to accelerate the development of policies to respond to climate change issues. Specifically, he asked for a greater near-term focus (defined as covering 2 to 5 years) in the programs, to speed the development of scientific information and technology options that can improve decision-making on climate change response options.

In February 2002 President Bush further strengthened the climate change science and technology programs by creating a new cabinet-level management structure, placing responsibility and accountability for the $4.5 billion annual budget science and technology programs in the relevant cabinet departments. This workshop, including its approach of open, transparent and comprehensive review of the key science and technology issues, is a direct outcome of the President's new management direction. Implementation of the President's new management structure has also resulted in several other new actions that strengthen the federal programs in climate change science and technology development. For example:

A top-down reevaluation of the climate change R&D programs in all thirteen participating agencies was completed in August 2001. This has created a substantial new basis for interagency collaboration in research, and has provided the essential background for preparation of the integrated, interagency draft strategic plan being discussed at this workshop.
A full 13-agency crosscut of the climate change research program plan and FY 2004 budget request was prepared in September 2002. This will facilitate efficiency and effectiveness in the commitment of future budget resources to the climate change program.
The interagency science and technology programs are now being reviewed on a frequent basis by high-level cabinet appointees of President Bush. For example, the President has designated an operating review committee composed of deputy cabinet level officials representing the thirteen collaborating agencies. This review committee has held a full agenda meeting nearly every month since the President designated its oversight responsibility in February 2002.

PURPOSE OF THE STRATEGIC PLAN AND THE WORKSHOP

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program is designed to serve in a "fact finder" capacity, providing a source of credible and useful information in three broad categories:

Science: The causes and projected effects of global climate change, including the understanding of both individual processes and multiple-factor interactions;

Observations and data: Observation system design and measurement methodologies for climate and ecosystem parameters, including high quality data archives, to facilitate trend analyses and other measurement-based scientific studies; and

Decision support resources: Analyses of mitigation and adaptation technology options, including both intended and unintended consequences, as input to scenarios designed to project future climate change impacts as well as the economic and energy system effects of proposed mitigation strategies.

The draft strategic plan for the Climate Change Science Program (that most of you have reviewed in preparation for this workshop) -- and the workshop discussion and written comment processes -- have been designed to support the "credible fact finder" role of CCSP. A series of six guidelines have been used in the development of the strategic plan and the workshop process. I briefly review these guidelines here, so that you may hold us to the standards they establish, in your review of the elements of the strategic plan, in the conduct of the workshop discussions, and in the resolution of the comments received after the workshop.

Question-based strategic plan

The draft strategic plan being reviewed in this workshop is based on responses to a series of key questions in each of the principal topic areas relevant to climate change science and response strategy development. Comments on each question in the review draft of the strategic plan include a summary of our current state of knowledge in the relevant area; indicate the improvements in knowledge expected to be achieved in the next 2 to 4 years and beyond; indicate the uncertainties unlikely to be resolved over the long term; and indicate the specific deliverables expected to result from the research activity. This question-based approach serves two key purposes: it fosters agreement on the appropriate questions to be addressed, and it enhances communication among the large number of preparers and users of the strategic plan.

Integration of USGCRP and CCRI

The Climate Change Science Program is jointly managing the long-term USGCRP (focusing on scientific discovery, process analysis and measurement programs) with the short-term focused CCRI launched by President Bush to underpin public debate and decision-making on response strategies. As many of the workshop participants know, the USGCRP has for many years been focused on key science areas, including atmospheric composition, climate variability, the carbon cycle, the water cycle, climate-ecosystem interactions, human dimensions of climate change, land use/land cover interactions with climate change, and climate model development and evaluation. The CCRI is short-term focused on reducing scientific uncertainty where possible, developing integrated global observing systems for oceans, atmosphere and ecosystems, and developing decision support resources to enhance public and policy-maker evaluation of climate change response options. The integrated management of the USGCRP and CCRI programs is helping to bridge between the "period of discovery and characterization" since the USGCRP program began in 1987 and the "period of differentiation and strategy investigation" which President Bush has called for in the CCRI program.

Combined scientific community and stakeholder review

All of the strategic plan review actions (including this workshop, the follow-up written comment period, and the future opportunities to comment on CCSP draft findings and other reports) are aimed at encouraging review comments, challenges, questions and alternative recommendations from both the international scientific community and the various interested stakeholder communities.

Policy relevant and policy neutral standards

The CCSP studies are intended to be policy relevant (i.e., focused on the comprehensive range of climate change outcomes and response options of interest to the United States and other governments throughout the world) while remaining policy neutral, to assure credibility among all interested stakeholders. Thus the CCSP studies do not recommend specific policy options; the studies are addressed toward answering "if ..., then ..." questions that explore the projected outcomes of various policy options.

Transparency, comprehensiveness and comparability standards

CCSP has a standard of full transparency in all of its plans, reports and data records. To maintain credibility among users of the CCSP analyses and projections, all CCSP review draft and final plans, reports of findings, and projections of future outcomes will be made available on publicly accessible web sites, and all comments communicated by interested stakeholders will also be posted for public review. CCSP will aim to make its analyses comprehensive (i.e., covering the range of interesting policy options) within the limits of the resources available for analysis. Moreover, CCSP will facilitate comparison with other studies, insofar as possible. For example, CCSP will use previously employed IPCC scenarios for analyses when appropriate.

Reporting of basis and degree of certainty as part of findings

CCSP will aim to describe the basis for all of its key findings and projections, with sufficient detail to allow independent reviewers to replicate the underlying analyses. Similarly, CCSP will seek to hold scientific and stakeholder community commenters to similar standards of attribution and basis. CCSP will also characterize the degree of certainty associated with its each of its key findings and projections. Where appropriate, "confidence level" descriptions will be used to communicate these characterizations. The introduction of uncertainty is not intended (by itself) to imply a basis for inaction. In cases where the uncertainty of analyses or projections is so large as to make the discrimination between options impractical, this judgment will be reported directly.

OPERATIONAL DETAILS OF THE WORKSHOP

Upon the completion of this overview session, we will "get down to the work" of the workshop by beginning discussions in the first six of 24 planned specialty sessions. These breakout specialty sessions were designed to cover each significant element of the strategic plan. Each of the breakout sessions, which are all detailed in your agendas, will be chaired by a moderator who will be responsible for time allocation, and for assuring a reasonable balance of comments by interested participants. Most of the breakout sessions will begin with an overview summary of the relevant chapter in the draft strategic plan, and a panel of volunteer and invited speakers will then offer their comments. These panelists have all agreed to place their comments on the web site for inspection by all interested persons.

After the comments by the panelists, the moderator will coordinate questions and comments from the floor, and will allow one or more of a panel composed of the original presenter and the respondents to respond to questions as appropriate. Two rapporteurs will keep notes throughout the specialty breakout sessions. However, we urge floor speakers to submit their comments on the web site after the workshop, so that they are reliably available to all interested persons.

The last suite of six specialty sessions, scheduled for Thursday, December 5, address important crosscutting issues. I recommend these for your special attention.

I want to cite two examples of the highly relevant technical presentations we will have during the specialty working sessions. Tomorrow (Wednesday) from 2:00 to 4:00 PM specialty session number 16 will address innovative technology opportunities to stabilize greenhouse gases. Among several topics, this session will include a description of a just-announced climate change technology development program to be led by Stanford University, with long-term support from a group of major corporate sponsors. On Thursday at 8:00 AM, Dr. Tetsuya Sato, Director-General of the Japanese Earth Simulator Center, will present a demonstration of Earth Simulator climate model calculations, at the opening of the Applied Climate Modeling specialty session. As you may know, the Japanese Earth Simulator is currently the largest capacity, highest speed, computing system in the world -- by a high margin.

We will reconvene in plenary sessions late this afternoon and each of the next two days to hear other Keynote presentations, and to hear summary reports of key issues developed in each of the specialty breakout sessions. I note in particular that Energy Secretary Abraham will address the workshop at 4:30 PM today in this room, and EPA Administrator Whitman will address the workshop at the same 4:30 PM time tomorrow in this room.

I want to call your attention to the closing plenary session, running two hours after lunch on Thursday. One hour will be devoted to invited feedback about the strategic plan and the workshop from a group of senior climate specialists representing diverse views, and speaking in their individual capacities. The closing hour will be used to summarize key issues brought up during the workshop, and to lay out the path forward toward reporting results of the federal research and development programs.

My presentation will now be followed by a summary of the development of the climate change science program strategic plan by my colleague Dr. Richard Moss, who has provided essential leadership in all aspects of the plan, and by a summary of the National Climate Change Technology Initiative, by Assistant Secretary of Energy David Garman who is leading the Initiative.

Thank you for your attention, and I look forward to joining you as we get down to the work of this workshop.

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