Keynote Address
By Professor G.O.P. Obasi, Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization
Presented at the U.S. Climate Change Science Workshop
Tuesday, 4 December 2002, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel

Dr Samuel W. Bodman, Deputy Secretary of Commerce,

Dr John Marburger, Science Adviser to the President and Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy,

Vice-Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

The Honourable David Garman, Assistant Secretary of Energy,

The Honourable Sean O'Keefe, Administrator of National Aeronautical and Space Administration,

Dr James R. Mahoney, Assistant Secretary of Commerce,

Agency Leaders from the United States and International Organizations,

Distinguished Guests,

Ladies and Gentlemen,

It gives me great pleasure to present this keynote address to this important audience. On behalf of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and my own, I wish to congratulate the organizers for putting together this very impressive United States Climate Change Science Program: Planning Workshop for Scientists and Stakeholders. I am thankful for the kind invitation of the United States Secretary of Commerce Honourable Donald L. Evans communicated to me by Dr James R. Mahoney, the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere. Given that scientists in this country always occupy a frontline position in global research arena, the importance of this workshop is certainly not limited to its potential impact on climate-related policy of the United States of America. Indeed, its impact will permeate to the international community at large. The presence of scientists and climate stakeholders from several organizations and countries is testimony to the wide interest in the outcome of this Workshop. I therefore commend the organizers for this timely response to President George W. Bush's direction that the U.S. global change and climate change science programmes must be objective, sensitive to uncertainties, and well documented for public debate.

Today, the world community is concerned about potential climate change as a growing number of events such as an unabated increase in greenhouse gases, a succession of record temperatures and an increasing number of extreme weather and climate events, all appear to be characteristic of a warmer climate. We therefore welcome the opportunity, as an international partner, to offer some comments as possible inputs to the draft version of the Strategic Plan for Climate Change and Global Change Studies of the US Climate Change Science Program. Given the comprehensive nature of this workshop agenda and the objective of the Plan which will place emphasis on the development of short-term products to support climate change policy and resource management decision-making, it is my expectation that the workshop outcome will have a significant bearing not only on the future strategic direction of the United States climate community but also on that of the global community including the related programmes of international organizations.

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Scientific assessments have shown that, over the past several decades, pollution from human activities, especially the burning and use of fossil fuels, is changing the natural composition of the atmosphere. For over 160 000 years up to about 1800AD, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), a principal greenhouse gas (GHG), varied only by 1 to 3 per cent. Since then, it has increased by over 32 per cent, and reached 370 parts per million by volume (ppmv) at the end of 2001. It is estimated that today's level of CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420 000 years. More than half of the CO2 increase has occurred since 1950 and is reckoned to be proportional to energy use.

Associated with the growing GHGs in the atmosphere is the increasing globally averaged surface temperatures, collected through WMO's Global Observing System. According to records maintained by Members of WMO, the warmest year since instrumental record began in 1860s, occurred in 1998, with 2001 as the second warmest. So far, nine of the warmest years have occurred since the beginning of 1990. These conditions are part of a continuing trend to warmer global temperatures that have resulted in a rise of more than 0.6_C during the past 100 years, albeit that rise in temperature has not been continuous. Since 1976, the global average temperature has risen at a rate approximately three times faster than the century-scale trend. In addition, the global average sea level has risen by 10 to 20 cm during the 20th century. Based on new and stronger evidence, the Third Assessment Report of the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released in 2001 concluded that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities". This conclusion must not be taken lightly.

Additionally, in recent decades, a growing number of unprecedented weather extremes such as tropical cyclones, severe floods and droughts continue to cause considerable loss of life and inflict damages to property. In recent months, major storm events and floods affected many countries across Europe, including Austria, the Czech Republic, France and Germany, in Asian countries such as Bangladesh, China, India and Nepal, in African countries such as Niger, Mali and part of Guinea, and recently in South America including Southern Argentina and Chile. Record-breaking droughts have had adverse consequences in a number of Middle East countries, Brazil, the Horn of Africa and the area from Central Asia to Northern China. Southern Africa and the Horn of Africa are currently in the throes of severe drought affecting the livelihood of about 23 million people.

Presently, a number of uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge do not allow us to relate, with certainty, these events to climate change. On the other hand, the existence of these uncertainties does not also imply that there is total lack of knowledge on the subject. For example, we are certain of the continued increases of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We also know that such increases will lead to a change in the radiative properties of the atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system. These will be accompanied by adjustments that will add to or subtract from the warming. The main difficulty we face is the inability to forecast with the desired degree of accuracy the magnitude, the rate, the time and space distribution and the consequences of human-induced climate change. This is one important reason why this workshop is relevant to both the national and the international communities. It is also a reason why we should seek to improve our scientific knowledge of climate variability and change whilst at the same time striving to ensure that the environmental and socio-economic conditions of present and future generations are not put at serious risk.

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,

While recognising that a great deal still needs to be done in terms of systematic observations, scientific research and policy development, implementation, and strengthened international collaboration in these areas, we should nevertheless acknowledge that much has already been achieved on the assessment of the impacts of climate variability and potential climate change on human systems. In this regard, I wish to take this opportunity to pay tribute to the most valuable work carried out by the WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since its establishment in 1988. Its timely, comprehensive and authoritative work has assisted the world community in proposing a number of actions that would protect the global climate especially in the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol.

A major recommendation in the IPCC Third Assessment Report is the need for additional systematic and sustained climate observations. This is coupled with the serious concern over the decline of some existing global observing networks. The improvement of the global observing system for climate change assessment remains crucial for the future, an issue that is highlighted in the agenda of this workshop. In this context, WMO will continue to mobilize all possible efforts, in partnership with concerned parties, in strengthening its networks, including those of the World Weather Watch (WWW) for weather and climate data, its Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) for the monitoring of the chemical composition of the atmosphere, especially greenhouse gases, and its hydrological observing stations. WMO's policy ensures that these data are exchanged freely and without restriction for research and educational purposes. WMO also coordinates a network of global data centres for various parameters including meteorological elements, greenhouse gases, and ozone and run off data. These unique data sets are vital for climate change prediction and assessment, the proposed Integrated Global Observing Strategy (IGOS) and for the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which is seeking to enhance the climate observing system in the oceanic and terrestrial domains as well.

In relation to oceanic observations, it is planned to deploy by 2005, in the context of the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), 3000 Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography (Argo) profiling floats to observe the oceans in real time. Along with meteorological, environmental and research and development satellites, the Argo floats will contribute to research efforts on the seasonal to inter-annual climate variability and to significant improvements in climate prediction.

Permafrost observation is another important element in the mission of GCOS because variations of permafrost temperature can be a substantive indicator of climate change and climate variability. For this purpose, the GCOS Terrestrial Network for Permafrost comprises some 90 stations and was established in 1999 to monitor changes of the frozen ground temperature and seasonal thaw. Recently, the GCOS Terrestrial Network for Glaciers was established for monitoring the mass balance some 60 glaciers and the length of some 800 glaciers throughout the world. Furthermore, to meet with the terrestrial requirement for climate, GCOS will continue to be closely coordinated with Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) which, among others, will ensure the improvement of data coverage on global change in terrestrial ecosystems.

In order to ascertain the adequacy of these diverse global climate observing systems, the GCOS in 1998, made major recommendations on the means to improve systematic observation to meet the needs of the UNFCCC. Subsequently, the UNFCCC invited the Conference of the Parties to prepare national reports on systematic observation and to take into account the capacity building needs of developing countries. The United States prepared an exceptionally comprehensive report on its climate activities. A second report on the adequacy of global climate observing systems that will determine the progress achieved and assess how well the current and planned systems will meet the needs of the Convention will be considered next year by the Conference of Parties of the UNFCCC. The GCOS Secretariat is also leading the development of Regional Action Plans that identify regional needs and priorities for addressing these needs.

As regards climate research, which is central to many of the agenda items of the workshop, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), jointly sponsored by WMO, the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), continues to be in the forefront of international efforts to improve our understanding of the climate system and its governing processes, and to develop the much-needed predictive modelling capabilities. The tremendous progress in understanding exhibited by the Third IPCC Assessment Report can be attributed in part to the collaborative international research efforts promoted within the WCRP projects. These contribute significantly to the scientific underpinning, which is so crucial for the integrity of the IPCC assessments, by focusing on the nature and predictability of seasonal variations of the climate system at global and regional scales, and on the detection and attribution of climate change, and projecting the magnitude and rate of human-induced climate change, its regional variations and sea-level rise. WCRP projects are being continually updated and re-orientated to respond to research priorities identified in the IPCC Assessment reports.

In the context of this Workshop, a most relevant WCRP project is the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) study, which aims at understanding both natural climate variability and human-induced climate change, as well as extend the range and accuracy of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions. It focuses on the natural variability of the coupled climate system and the changes in response to natural processes and human influences.

Another major and highly relevant WCRP core project is the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), which focuses on the atmospheric and thermodynamic processes that determine the global hydrological cycle and energy budget, and their adjustments to global changes such as the increase in greenhouse gases. High priority continues to be given to assembling the unique global climatological data sets needed to provide information on radiation, clouds, water vapour, aerosols and rainfall, blending the best available observations from surface and space-based systems. Also, land-surface processes including treatment of soil moisture, run off and land-use change are being investigated. A new WCRP project devoted to studying the role of the cryosphere in climate has been formulated and implementation has begun.

These projects form the basis of climate models that are used for climate change projections and the WCRP continues to give high priority in dealing with related uncertainties, especially those identified in the IPCC Third Assessment Report. Additionally, WCRP will continue to give emphasis to the development of an active programme of intercomparison of the simulations of climate models. In this connection, a new phase of coupled ocean-atmosphere model intercomparison is now being planned. This new database of climate model intercomparison is expected to be available by 2004, in good time for the next IPCC Assessment Report planned for completion in 2007. WCRP is also involved in the process of identifying the main questions and issues of climate feedback and will explore methods of analysis of highly non-linear complex systems from other disciplines in order to select new approaches that could be applied in the climate area.

Furthermore, in order to draw on the expertise of other groups, WCRP is also working closely with the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) in planning the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project.

The IPCC is now commencing its Fourth Assessment, which is expected to provide clearer and detailed statement of the extent of climate change including regional effects, climate variability, extreme events, a better understanding of the physical processes driving climate change, improved development of scenarios and a more sophisticated analysis of adaptation and mitigation options. Before completion of the Fourth Assessment Report, the IPCC will also provide a number of Special Reports that will assist the UNFCCC processes. As a co-sponsor of the IPCC, the WMO will continue to do all it can to assist the Panel as it works with the best scientists and technologists throughout the world to carry out these assessments.

It must also be noted that the improved understanding of climate issues at a scientific level by itself is not sufficient. User communities as well as the media and the public need the scientific findings about the climate system, including routine predictions on a range of time- and space- scales, to be presented in reliable, trusted and practical ways. This will allow them to understand and apply such information effectively in a wide range of environmental, social and economic sectors. In this way, it will also be possible to gain their support in the event that difficult choices have to be made to protect our climate. It is important, therefore, that nations develop the capacity to produce a range of climate services that will complement daily weather information and services, which are now taken for granted. WMO is addressing this challenge within the overall context of sustainable development. In particular, WMO's Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS) project contributes to the application of climate knowledge and information for the benefit of society in a number of areas. Ultimately, the important issues relate to how climate, climate variability, and climate change impinge upon the human condition in such areas as health, water availability, food security, energy generation, habitat and the environment. In this context, existing international collaboration should be reinforced and new multidisciplinary avenues explored to address the research and application issues in innovative ways.

Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen,

From the above, it is pertinent to recommend that the following are taken into consideration in the final Strategic Plan that would emerge from this workshop.

First, there is a need to work closely with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in the development and strengthening of an improved observation networks for monitoring and detecting climate change. This would help to fill in data gaps in space and time, especially in developing countries, over the oceans and in polar regions. This effort should be coordinated with WMO's and other relevant data gathering, archiving and processing programmes, for example, through the Integrated Global Observing Strategy partnership;

Second, continued and increased research should be undertaken to better understand the processes that are important in climate, and to incorporate this understanding into models that can help us simulate better the global climate system and to anticipate future changes at various time and space scales;

Third, there should be clear appreciation of the fact that climate change is a global problem and therefore all nations need to work across geopolitical boundaries to deal with it. On this basis, observations, research and community responses require some degree of coordination so as to identify priorities for action, to prevent duplication of effort or competing responses, and to identify serious gaps that need to be filled. Consequently, there is the need to have the appropriate international linkages with scientists in both developed and developing countries alike;

Fourth, there is a need to evolve innovative and sustainable means of raising resources in support of observations and research directly related to climate change;

Fifth, appropriate measures should be developed for increasing the level of awareness about climate change at policy level, and of the public and the media, through effective communication between the scientific community and all stakeholders; and

Sixth, clear indication should be given of both short- and long-term goals (and related projects) that take into account the needs of all stakeholders, and whose achievement could be translated into actions.

In conclusion, I wish the workshop every success in achieving its goals. It stands out as a landmark event in our effort to address the challenges posed by global climate change. Its success will contribute in no small way to protect our climate for future generations of humankind.

Thank you.