Keynote Address
By Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.), Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere
Presented at the U.S. Climate Change Science Workshop
Tuesday, 4 December 2002, Marriott Wardman Park Hotel

It's a great pleasure and honor to be here. As I look out at the audience I see many who have devoted their lives to these efforts. I am Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA. On behalf of NOAA, allow me to take this opportunity again to thank you all for participating in this important workshop. This is impressive and I am excited to see such great interest in a topic that clearly transcends political, administrative, and national borders.

There are three things that I want to focus on this morning. The first is the significance of this conference, second, is the value of observing systems to our mission here today, and third is how we weave in to that as head of a science agency that deals with these issues.

National & International Participation on Climate Change

This workshop has brought together many thoughtful people from around the nation, as well as from other nations, to consider the scientific questions surrounding climate change. This conference is a major step forward in response to President Bush's call to develop the best scientific information for addressing global climate change.

The President has been explicit in asking that the nations of the world join with us in developing better science and observing systems to assist in meeting the challenges posed by climate change. This is indeed a global issue and it calls for global solutions.

Sound Science for Sound Decisions

Regardless of our expertise or nationality, we are here today to combine our talents to tackle the tough scientific issues surrounding climate. We, as scientists, have a responsibility to provide Sound Science for Sound Decisions. This nation's decision-makers deserve the best information we can provide for informed policy on climate change.

NOAA

We at NOAA have been in the Earth information business since our inception. In fact, we have been at the forefront of remote sensing and observation of the Earth for over 40 years, even a few years before our agency was formed. Our mission is to observe and describe changes in the Earth's ecosystems and communicate this information to the public in useful ways. We deal with the whole Earth system....this is unique among environmental agencies of the world.

The science and management at NOAA, including our climate work, helps to sustain a healthy economy, and protect lives and property.

We at NOAA, see this climate workshop as a great opportunity to move beyond our individual agency missions and move forward collectively. Together, we can reduce the current level of uncertainty in forecasts and assessments in the climate business. We will do this by asking the right questions, conducting targeted research, and improving our technologies.

This Workshop is to Help Develop a National Strategic Plan

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program which Dr. Mahoney heads. has issued a draft strategic plan. And we are here to discuss its merits. This plan outlines a clear direction and requirements for tangible near-term results. It is meant to be a national plan to encompass and mobilize all of our scientific assets, not just those of the federal government, as I stated yesterday, but of all capable and interested parties. Building an effective plan requires that all of us reach agreement on the critical questions to be answered, identification of priorities, and formulation of the strategies for implementation of those priorities. And we must reach agreement on all fronts internally-- government, academia, industry, and NGOs, in order to join with the other nations of the world in meeting this global challenge.

Need for an Integrated Global Observing System

Let me skip into what I think is the crux of this workshop. I'm going to focus on one of my top priorities - an integrated global observing system. A system that will enable us to "take the pulse of the planet", to use a medical analogy.

Creation of an international, integrated global observing system is important to NOAA, and it's important to this country. In fact, development, deployment and operation of observing systems have always been a key part of NOAA's mission. You could say that our earth observing environmental satellites were the original global observing system, providing imagery and atmospheric soundings to nations around the world every day. Together with NSF, and as part of an international effort, we helped deploy the TAO-TRITON buoy system across the Tropical Pacific Ocean, which has provided the measurements to enable our El Nino forecasts, a true climate forecasting capability that we have today for the world.

We operate what we call "baseline observatories" from the South Pole to Point Barrow, Alaska, which conduct daily measurements of CO2, Ozone and other atmospheric gases. Many of the conclusions you see in the IPCC report come from data that have been carefully collected and analyzed by our scientists. And, of course, with the agencies in the National Oceanographic Partnership Program and again in concert with international partners, we are deploying ARGO profiling floats, which are creating a system for the oceans analogous to our weather radiosonde balloons in the atmosphere.

Building the global observing architecture

I also emphasize the need for a global observing system because it deals with what some consider the mundane, and often neglected element of sound science -- DATA.

Many of us here have been asked, in off line conversations -- "Don't we have enough data? We've been taking data for years, why do we need more? And why aren't we fully using the data for decision-making? The data that we have here today"

Let's answer that question. For example let's take the oceans of the world. It was stated by a leading scientist at a Congressional hearing last year that we essentially have only 3 valid data points in the ocean that are relevant to climate change. Climate is clearly dependent on the physics of our oceans -- and our oceans remain largely unobserved. If we are ever to build comprehensive and accurate seasonal, decadal and longer-range climate forecasts, a robust ocean observing system is absolutely necessary. We also have large gaps in our atmospheric and terrestrial observing systems, and as Dr. Obasi of the WMO also stated yesterday, it is critical that we build an integrated observing system to fill in those observational gaps.

A global observing system would be a vital engine for research. It must also serve as a 24 by 7 operational system. I make this point because NOAA, and many of our counterpart agencies around the world, are science-based organizations, with national operational missions.

Now, we must assist developing nations in building their observation systems to put into this network. This will allow us to see data from parts of the world which are now largely unknown to us. Second, we need to lay the foundation for standardized global measurements. Third, we must continue to reduce discrepancies among climate measurements. By taking these steps, we can achieve high quality data and continuity of the long-term climate record, which is absolutely essential to building accurate regional and global climate forecasting models.

What is NOAA doing?

So what is NOAA doing right now in this regard?

Many of you know, since I have been on board with NOAA, I had the agency undergo an internal review designed to better integrate NOAA under a system called Matrix Management. I won't spend a lot of time explaining it, but as a result, we decided to introduce into our organization a formalized matrix management system.

Under matrix management, NOAA will integrate its climate efforts across all of our five major product divisions. If there is any integrating force, it is climate, because it cuts across everything within NOAA from ecological forecasting, climate forecasting and assessment, short to long-term climate variability, fisheries management, coastal zone management, and almost every aspect of reporting information to the public that NOAA does.

What do we do currently?

We provide El Nino forecasts....we collect drought monitoring data... we provide snow pack and snow melt predictions... we offer flooding and hydrologic forecasts, and seasonal climate forecasts, all of which have become extremely important to many user communities in our nation's economy, and these reports clearly transcend weather and move into climate forecasting. In fact, our services directly affect $2.7 trillion dollars of the nation's economy every day. These services, as well as future operational climate services, must continue to be based on coherent and validated science. A piecemeal approach to climate observations and climate science will not provide the data needed to form the foundation to make sound economic decisions in a nation as large as ours and in other nations around the world.

In oceans observing, we have led efforts to build partnerships with fourteen nations and the European Commission and have set a goal to deploy 3,000 ARGO floats. There are now 579 Argo floats deployed worldwide -- but we have a long way to go toward meeting our goal. To date, the U.S. has committed funding for 275 floats and we are looking for funding to complete approximately one half of the full commitment of 3000. NOAA also has a total of approximately 400 additional buoys and moorings in place that take continuous ocean observations.

In addition, NOAA currently manages and operates 13 environmental satellites. Our satellite constellation includes polar and geostationary satellites that record continuous observations of the Earth's natural systems. And I am pleased to say that NOAA also manages polar-orbiting weather satellites for the U.S. Air Force. We also have satellites on orbit that are in spare configuration. NOAA's suite of satellite observations has made revolutionary improvements to weather and climate forecasting. NOAA will continue to improve and use these technologies in the global ocean observing system.

Conclusion

Of course, to truly measure, observe and understand the oceans and our world's climate system, it is going to take a united effort. I am pleased that the draft national climate plan recognizes the need for a global observing system. I'm proud of what NOAA is doing and I am optimistic about the combined efforts of our federal agencies. Current observational systems have been developed and deployed for specific missions and purposes that are not fully coordinated. We must do better.

In fact, this workshop is the necessary step as we join together to develop a global observing architecture. Such an international system would provide the type of continuous and accurate measurements and data that will enable us to provide Climate forecasts and products that we need -- ones that our decision makers require.

Earth Observation Summit Announcement

In closing, I offer to you an idea for one way in which we can all move forward. We propose that an Earth Observation Summit be held in the summer of 2003 for key senior national and international officials who support global-scale environmental observations. Such a forum will promote the value of a global Earth observing system, and gain high-level declarations of support for integrated space-based and in situ observations. The United States environmental science agencies would be honored to lead in this effort to demonstrate our commitment to environmental stewardship and the promotion of sound science for the benefit of our nation and the nations around the world.

Finally, I thank you all again today for generously giving of your time and expertise. I especially thank Dr. Jim Mahoney and his team, and all of our agency representatives for organizing this Workshop. I indeed look forward to seeing how the results of this workshop will frame the critical scientific questions inherent to climate science, identify specific priorities to investigate those questions, and build the resulting strategy and observing system to address those priorities.

Thank you very much for your time and patience.