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Dr. Bruce Alberts |
The following was presented as a series of Microsoft
Powerpoint slides. The Powerpoint
presentation (653 kb) is available separately.
Slide 1
[Image of the National Academy of Sciences web site
home page]
Slide 2
U.S. National Academy of Sciences Charter (1863)
"The academy shall,whenever called upon by any
department of the government, investigate, examine... and report upon any
subject of science or art, ... but the Academy shall receive no
compensation whatsoever for any services to the government of the United
States".
Slide 3
The National Academies
- National Academy of Sciences
- National Academy of Engineering
- Institute of Medicine
- National Research Council
Slide 4
Independent policy advice from the National
Academies
- More than 200 reports a year, 85 percent
requested by the US government
- Full text released to the press, and to the
public on our Website, when report is delivered to government
Slide 5
[view of
www.national-academies.org]
Slide 6
National Academies Review of the U.S. Climate
Change Science Program Strategic Plan
Slide 7
Committee
- Thomas E. Graedel (chair), Yale University
- Linda Capuano, Honeywell Engines and Systems
- Elizabeth Chornesky, University of California,
Santa Cruz
- Mary Gade, Sonnenschein, Nath, and Rosenthal
- Katharine L. Jacobs, Arizona State Department of
Water Resources
- Anthony C. Janetos, Heinz Center for Science,
Economics, and the Environment
- Charles Kolstad, University of California, Santa
Barbara
- Diana Liverman, University of Arizona
- Jerry D. Mahlman, National Center for Atmospheric
Research
- Diane McKnight, University of Colorado
- Michael J. Prather, University of California,
Irvine
- Eugene Rosa, Washington State University
- William Schlesinger, Duke University
- David Skole, Michigan State University
- Andrew Solow, Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution
- Robert Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic
Institution
- Stephen Wittrig, BP
Slides 8 & 9
Review of U.S. CCSP Strategic Plan
Study Tasks
Phase I: The committee will review
the draft strategic plan
The review will address the following questions for
the draft plan as a whole:
- Is the plan responsive to the nation's needs?
- Are the goals clear, appropriate, and
well-balanced?
- Does the plan adequately describe the roles of
relevant stakeholders?
- Does the written document communicate
effectively?
The review will address the following questions for
the plan's topical areas:
- Does the plan reflect current scientific and
technical understanding?
- Are the specific objectives clear and
appropriate?
- Are expected deliverables realistic given the
available resources?
Phase II: The committee will review
the final plan by revisiting the same questions as in Phase I.
The committee also will examine the following questions about the process
used to solicit and consider scientific and stakeholder input:
- Were the mechanisms for input adequate?
- Did the workshop promote the open exchange of
ideas and suggestions for improvement?
- Was the process used to change the draft plan
clearly communicated?
- What specific improvements should be reflected in
future planning efforts for the program?
Slide 10--Timeline
Phase I:
- November 11, 2002 Draft strategic plan posted
- November 22, 2002 First committee meeting in
Washington, DC
- December 3-5, 2002 Public workshop held in
Washington, DC
- December 6, 2002 Second committee meeting in
Washington, DC
- January 8-10, 2003 Third committee meeting in
Irvine, CA
- February 28, 2003 First Academies report
delivered
Phase II:
- April 1, 2003 Publication of revised (final)
strategic plan by government (approximate)
- September, 2003 Release of second Academies
report
Slide 11
Most Recent National Academies Reports on Climate
Change
Slide 12
[copy of cover of
Climate Change Science: An
Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)]
Slide 13
"Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's
atmosphere as a result of human activities, causing surface air
temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Temperatures
are, in fact, rising. The changes observed over the last several decades
are likely mostly due to human activities, but we cannot rule out that
some significant part of these changes are also a reflection of natural
variability. Human-induced warming and associated sea level rises are
expected to continue through the 21st century."
Slides 14 and 15
Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties
in projections of future climate will require addressing a number of
fundamental scientific questions ...Issues that need to be addressed
include:
- The future usage of fossil fuels
- The future emissions of methane
- The fraction of the future fossil-fuel
carbon that will remain in the atmosphere and provide radiative forcing
versus exchange with the oceans or net exchange with the land biosphere
- The feedbacks in the climate system that
determine both the magnitude of the change and the rate of energy uptake
by the oceans
- The details of the regional and local
climate change consequent to an overall level of global climate change
- The nature and causes of the natural
variability of climate and its interactions with forced changes
- The direct and indirect effects of the
changing distributions of aerosols
Slide 16
In addition, the research enterprise dealing with
environmental change and the interactions of human society with the
environment must be enhanced. This includes support of:
- An improved capability of integrating scientific
knowledge, including its uncertainty, into effective decision support
systems, and
- An ability to conduct research at the regional
or sectoral level that promotes analysis of the response of human and
natural systems to multiple stresses.
Slide 17
An effective strategy for advancing the
understanding of climate change also will require:
- A global observing system in support of long
term climate monitoring and prediction;
- Concentration on large-scale modeling through
increased, dedicated supercomputing and human resources; and
- Efforts to ensure that climate research is
supported and managed to assure innovation, effectiveness and
efficiency.
Slide 18
[cover of
Global Environmental
Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade]
Slide 19
[cover of Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A
Scientific Assessment]
Slide 20
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific
Assessment (1979)
Jule G. Charney, chair
"The known negative feedback mechanisms can
reduce the warming, but they do not appear to be as strong as the
positive moisture feedback. We estimate the most probable global
warming for a doubling of CO2 to be near 3 degrees C, with a probable
error of plus or minus 1.5 degrees."
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