ÿWPCá ›)û„ÔÒñR;ÃÌr~Þ-{Ö?­ä ù¿§Ø!t dÑSzYg|E2œ&ÔËLÇx„Ç››ÑølûêR­ ˆø¾ùú{˵2ƒá¡ì¯KçÜÝkzd(¢å´KCMÉèF”¦ÂÛè "òò÷';m-‡ŒAr… Ý1âK MªÇΑóRoñ»[ò¶µùîàÊGªó~[òº¶dªÊéõõCeƒ¤ÀŒ[D1kñ qm³-y<›rP —;ÜŽ×ä*: ’7À4ÐÓ9ÔÛ§ÿ/0k‚¿>é…I»¼G-„VIG©:-:¨%©æ„ŒÞÓ{œ{ƒ ‘9ˆ‹L®;, ˜‘XõÿFT§ßTÑ5DЫÀ”á~[6GS†T€úªìv‹k^j K ¢‡†Ô² ÆCñ˜îk!  çuè9oÕF··h¬-—|Ü1©æî'ñšöwú °èÍu\A&á-—Çʦþ«¹’%&°ÁHÈÅ°ðú ›š%, TáÓ;Ó'ÆKžµR?-†KV ©QÀ¿_úø)=8Ñãšæ¡<º‹W\’‡PY¨ÎáM‰'Æ*9‰«7(êí¶¼=^™RÌÒ #!¨UNÉ % 0:^ Ww@c4£·Æ mÈNߘHP LaserJet 5P,ð,,,,,ð0(ÖÃ9 Z‹6Times New Roman RegularX(üœ$¡¡ÔUSUS.,ÔÎu=.  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ÝÔ_ÔññÓ€ÓññññÔ€¼ÍY»XXÔññññÑ8€Ä`XXdìdÈ8ÑññComments€on€Chapter€10.€Ecosystems.ÌRichard€NorbyÌDecember€ññ1ññññ4ññ,€2002ÌÌEcosystem€analysis€must€play€a€central€role€in€how€we€as€a€science€community€and€we€as€aÏnation€address€the€challenges€of€atmospheric€and€climatic€change.€As€Chapter€10€rightly€pointsÏout,€ecosystems€have€a€dual€role€ð!ð€they€are€important€regulators€of€atmospheric€compositionÏthrough€the€global€carbon€cycle€as€well€as€€providing€other€feedbacks€to€local€and€regionalÏclimate,€and€secondly,€the€likely€responses€of€ecosystems€to€climatic€and€atmospheric€changeÏover€the€next€few€decades€will€be€a€primary€way€by€which€global€change€impacts€people.€TheÏtwo€roles€are€complementary€and€must€be€studied€together.€Aspects€of€ecosystem€research€is€seenÏthroughout€this€science€plan€because€of€the€importance€of€the€terrestrial€biosphere€in€the€carbonÏcycle,€water€cycle,€land€use€issues,€monitoring€needs,€and€so€on.€Hence,€a€coordinated€and€tightlyÏintegrated€research€program€is€essential.€An€overarching€organizing€principle€throughout€thisÏchapter€is€that€ecosystems€provide€critical€goods€and€services€to€humans.€Much€of€the€researchÏon€ecosystems€and€global€change€in€the€past€decade€has€focused€on€carbon€cycling,€an€importantÏecosystem€service€to€be€sure,€but€only€one€part€of€the€equation.€This€strategic€plan€takes€anÏimportant€step€forward€by€putting€ecosystem€goods€and€services€as€a€central€focus.ñ ñÌñ ññ!ñÐ  H˜ Ðñ!ñÌAny€research€plan€must€of€course€build€on€the€fruits€of€past€efforts.€Chapter€10€suggests€that€inÏthe€last€decade€we€have€already€addressed€the€vulnerability€of€ecosystems€to€global€change€andÏthe€potential€impacts€of€global€change€on€ecological€systems€at€multiple€scales.€€Clearly€theseÏhave€been€important€objectives€under€the€Ô_ÔGCRPÔ_Ô,€and€we€can€say€much€more€about€the€potentialÏimpacts€now€than€we€could€have€10€years€ago.€However,€it€is€important€to€recognize€that€this€hasÏbeen€an€incremental€process,€building€up€from€an€understanding€of€the€responses€of€componentÏprocesses€and€component€organisms.€Only€recently€have€experiments€been€able€to€measureÏresponses€to€manipulations€of€atmospheric€factors€at€an€ecosystem€scale,€and€those€experimentsÏneed€to€run€for€additional€years.€The€scale€of€many€of€those€experimental€systems€still€is€tooÏsmall€to€encompass€some€important€ecological€processes.€Most€experimental€efforts€haveÏfocused€on€single„factor€manipulations€despite€the€recognition€of€the€importance€of€multiple„¼stress€interactions.€Most€of€the€research€has€been€directed€toward€carbon€cycling,€and€insightsÏinto€broader€issues€of€ecosystem€goods€and€services€have€usually€been€ancillary€or€fortuitous.ÏEcosystem€models€have€been€advancing€our€ability€to€project€ecosystem€responses€and€feedbacksÏinto€the€future,€but€the€models€continue€to€be€updated€as€new€experimental€insights€challengeÏbasic€assumptions.€So,€I€would€conclude€that€we€cannot€yet€fully€describe€the€vulnerability€ofÏecosystems€to€global€change,€but€our€understanding€continues€to€improve€and€the€questions€weÏask€are€becoming€better€defined.€This€is€how€the€process€should€work,€and€it€must€continue€toÏadvance€and€evolve.ÌÌMost€of€the€important€elements€of€a€good€research€program€for€ecosystems€are€present€in€ChapterÏ10.€Nevertheless,€I€was€disappointed€that€a€more€compelling€and€better€integrated€program€wasÏnot€put€forward.€I€do€not€see€here€a€coherent€plan€to€organize,€guide,€and€challenge€futureÏresearch.€This€marks€a€significant€retreat€from€prior€research€agendas,€notably€that€put€forward€inÏthe€National€Academy€òòPathways€óóreport.€I€wonder€if€there€has€there€been€a€deliberate€retreat€fromÐ T,¤'+ Ðthe€Pathways€report,€and€if€so,€why?€Ð @-(, ЇThe€Ô_ÔCCSPÔ_Ô€plan€for€ecosystems€is€organized€around€three€questions,€roughly:€understandingÏecosystem€feedbacks€to€the€global€system;€understanding€consequences€of€global€change€toÏecosystems€and€their€goods€and€services;€and€evaluation€of€ecosystem€management€options€toÏsustain€those€goods€and€services.€The€first€two€aspects€of€ecosystem€response€really€must€beÏstudied€together,€and€their€separation€in€the€research€plan€seems€artificial€and€confusing.€ÌÌThe€òòPathwaysóó€report€proposed€organizing€ecosystem€research€around€four€imperatives:Ð 8 ˆ Ðunderstanding€the€relationships€between€climate€and€land€surface€biophysical€processes;Ïunderstanding€the€changing€biogeochemical€cycles€of€carbon€and€nitrogen;€understanding€theÏresponses€of€ecosystems€to€multiple€stresses;€and€understanding€the€relationship€betweenÏbiodiversity€and€ecosystem€function.€These€imperatives€follow€logically€from€research€over€theÏpast€few€decades€and€provide€a€strong,€scientifically„based€framework€for€future€research€thatÏaddresses€all€three€of€Chapter€10's€questions€in€an€integrative,€comprehensive€manner.ÌÌImproved€ecosystem€monitoring€capabilities€are€proposed€in€Question€1,€echoing€a€proposal€thatÏis€part€of€the€Ô_ÔCCRIÔ_Ô€in€Chapter€3òò.€óóA€new€ecosystem€monitoring€program€could€be€a€key€initiativeÐ „Ô  Ðthat€brings€together€a€platform€for€studying€ecosystem€processes€and€their€interactions€withÏweather€and€climate,€a€focus€for€model€development,€and€linkages€to€ongoing€satellite„basedÏremote€sensing.€Intensive€monitoring€of€selected€ecosystems€could€also€provide€the€focal€pointÏfor€ecosystem„scale€manipulative€field€experiments,€creating€a€coordinated€program€ofÏobservation€and€prediction.€To€accomplish€this€important€objective,€new€measurement€tools€areÏneeded€that€permit€extensive,€real„time,€non„invasive,€and€highly€networked€data€streams€withÏadvanced€computing€facilities€to€process€them.€There€must€be€new€tools€for€studyingÏbelowground€processes€„€a€key€uncertainty€that€is€never€mentioned€€in€this€chapter.€A€newÏinitiative€for€tool€development€would€be€an€appropriate€near„term€product€for€Question€1.€GivenÏthe€multi„faceted€importance€of€this€proposal,€it€is€disappointing€and€disturbing€that€Chapter€10Ïspecifically€indicates€that€new€research€programs€may€be€too€expensive;€this€is€tantamount€toÏgiving€up€on€the€research€agenda€before€it€is€even€started.ñ#ñññÐ  ”ä Ðñññ#ññ$ñÌÌñ$ñññÌÌÌññThe€illustrative€research€questions€for€Question€2€are€very€broad€and€all„encompassing,€andÏtherefore€not€very€useful€for€defining€a€research€agenda.€Biodiversity€is€brought€into€theÏdiscussion€without€any€foundation€as€to€the€kind€of€research€questions€that€might€be€important.€AÏwhole€host€of€environmental€changes€are€invoked€without€any€attempt€to€prioritize€or€even€toÏsuggest€that€there€might€be€a€need€for€prioritization.€The€research€need€concerning€experiments€isÏvague€and€fails€to€mention€the€multiple€stress€imperative€or€the€importance€of€maintaining€long„¼term€experiments.€There€is€a€high€degree€of€overlap€between€questions€1€and€2€and€in€theÏresearch€approaches€that€are€needed€to€address€them€ð!ð€this€should€be€made€explicit€so€as€toÏencourage€a€more€cost„effective,€coordinated€research€program.€A€report€in€2€years€aboutÏpotential€consequences€of€global€change€to€ecosystems€€ð!ð€given€as€a€product€for€Question€2€ð!ðÏwould€provide€incremental€information€over€that€of€reports€that€have€already€been€written,€butÏthese€complex€questions€cannot€be€resolved€in€2€years.€There€must€be€a€commitment€to€long„¼term,€sustained€experiments€and€monitoring€efforts.ò òó óÐ |*Ì%) ÐÌThe€integration€of€ecosystem€research€with€evaluation€of€management€regimes,€as€presented€inÏQuestion€3,€would€be€an€important€advancement€for€the€next€decade.€The€recognition€of€theÐ @-(, Ðimportance€to€society€of€ecosystem€goods€and€services,€and€their€vulnerability€to€atmosphericÏand€climatic€change,€define€the€need€for€this€activity.€This€section€unfortunately€tends€to€discussÏservices€as€apart€from€the€structure€and€functioning€of€the€ecosystem€as€a€whole.ò òó ó€The€analysis€ofÐ ˆØ Ðecosystem€management€must€be€closely€linked€to€land€use€issues,€because€clearly€the€best€way€toÏpreserve€ecosystem€goods€and€services€is€to€preserve€ecosystems.ÌÌTo€conclude,€ecosystem€responses€define€ññmany€of€ññthe€consequences€of€global€change€that€matterÏmost€to€people.€It€must€remain€a€prominent€part€of€the€research€agenda€for€the€next€decade.ÏChapter€10€includes€the€important€elements€of€a€strong€research€program€that€encompass€the€dualÏrole€of€ecosystems€in€global€change€analyses€and€the€important€organizing€principle€of€ecosystemÏgoods€and€services.€However,€those€elements€are€not€presented€in€a€compelling€manner€thatÏwould€lead€to€a€comprehensive€and€well„integrated€program.€I€recommend€that€the€framework€ofÏthe€òòPathwaysóó€report€be€revisited€to€provide€this€chapter€with€better€focus,€clarity,€and€scientificÐ À  Ðrigor.€A€new€ecosystem€monitoring€program€that€links€observation,€manipulation,€remoteÏsensing,€and€modeling€could€provide€a€focus€for€efficiently€and€comprehensively€addressing€theÏcritical€questions€that€have€been€posed.€I€hope€that€there€is€a€genuine€commitment€in€the€Ô_ÔCCSPÔ_Ô€toÏaddress€these€needs.€ÌÌÌÌÌ