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Chapter 12
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How to Submit Comments
Acronyms
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Modeling Priorities and Linkages in CCSP Program Elements
Atmospheric Composition (Chapter 5)
Carry out chemical transport modeling activities, with
emphasis on cross-tropopause processes, the role of particles in
accelerating ozone-loss chemistry, and stratospheric transport.
Use models to describe the interactions of various types of
aerosols and to estimate the net sign, magnitude, and uncertainty in the
cooling -- warming role of aerosols.
Build and evaluate diagnostic/prognostic models of the
coupled climate, chemistry/transport, and ecological systems (in
collaboration with other elements of the program).
Climate Variability and Change (Chapter 6)
Refined estimates of the role of climate feedback processes
in affecting climate sensitivity and improvements in their
representation in climate models.
Predictions of regional patterns of different modes of
climate variability.
Improved predictions of ENSO, particularly the onset and
decay phases, and assessment of potential predictability beyond ENSO,
e.g., the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, monsoons.
An improved ability to separate the contributions of natural
versus human-induced climate forcing to climate variations and change,
resulting in more credible answers to "what if" policy-related
questions.
More advanced knowledge about the changes in natural
variability that may result from anthropogenic forcing.
Improved understanding of the primary natural and forced
mechanisms for abrupt climate changes.
Models of the full three-dimensional circulation of the
global ocean.
Time dependent models of ice sheet changes to assess
underlying mechanisms and their contributions to future sea level rise.
Climate monitoring and forecast capabilities for regional
applications and risk reduction.
New parameterizations for water vapor, clouds, and
precipitation processes for use in climate models, using new
cloud-resolving models created in part as a result of field process
studies.
New models capable of simulating the feedbacks between the
water cycle and the climate system (including biogeochemical cycles).
Models that partition precipitation among surface and
subsurface pathways, route flows, and quantify physical and chemical
interactions for evaluating climate and pollution impacts.
Integrated models of total water consumption for
incorporation into decision support tools that identify water-scarce
regions and efficient water use strategies.
Land Use and Land Cover Change (Chapter 8)
Urban growth models.
Identification of the regional components of a US land use
and land cover change model.
National- and global-scale land use and land cover change
projection models.
Climate models incorporating land use and land cover data.
National- and global-scale models with a coupled
climate-land use system.
Carbon cycle models including data assimilation customized
for North America (developed under part I).
Models of ocean carbon cycling based on linkages between
carbon and nitrogen in coastal environments, and of ocean carbon
sequestration that incorporate biogeochemistry, ocean circulation, and
the potential impact on ecosystems.
Global maps of carbon storage derived from model-based
analysis of actual land cover (cooperative effort with the Land Cover
element).
Advanced carbon models that include the long-term effects of
actual land use history and are able to simulate interannual variability
at ecosystem and landscape scales.
Improved projections of climate change forcings and
quantification of dynamic feedbacks among the carbon cycle, human
actions, and the climate system, with better estimates of uncertainty
and errors, from prognostic carbon cycle models.
Spatially explicit ecosystem models at regional to global
scales, based on data from experimental manipulations focused on the
effect of interactions among global change variables, to improve our
capacity to observe contemporary, historical, and long-term changes in
ecosystem structure and functioning.
Data and spatially explicit models for examining the impact
of management and policy decisions on a wide range of ecosystems, to
predict the efficacy and tradeoffs of management strategies at varying
scales relevant to the decisions at hand.
Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change (Chapter 11)
Development of integrated assessment models with the ability
to analyze the effects of measures directed at the reduction of urban
air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.
Development of integrated assessment models that introduce
new energy and carbon sequestration technologies.
Model-based simulation studies of the influence of social
and economic factors on vulnerability and adaptive capacity in
households, organizations, and communities.
Analyses of the consequences of rapid climate changes in the
past and the ability of hazard and resource management institutions to
respond to surprising shifts in climate and to seasonal forecasts.
Model-based simulation studies of the influence of
demographic, social, economic and climate change factors on the
incidence and distribution of infectious diseases.
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