Abrupt Climate Change
Elements of the Strategic Plan

The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires the periodic development of a 10-year National Global Change Research Plan.  Each plan should establish "the goals and priorities for Federal global change research which most effectively advance scientific understanding of global change and provide usable information on which to base policy decisions relating to global change."

In compliance with the Act, the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in July 2003 published its Strategic Plan.  Chapter 4 of the plan focuses on Climate Variability and Change, one of the plan's 7 research elements.  The chapter lists five key science questions as central to that research element. 

The third key science question, Question 4.3, asks:

What is the likelihood of abrupt changes in the climate system such as the collapse of the ocean thermohaline circulation, inception of a decades-long mega-drought, or rapid melting of the major ice sheets? 

Discussion of the question includes:

• State of Knowledge.
• Research Needs.
• Milestones, Products, and Payoffs.