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US Climate Change Science Program
Updated 14 February 2006

North American Carbon Budget and Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle
[also known as the Prototype State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR) focused on North America]

Final Prospectus for Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2

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Footnote 1: The Terms of Reference for a First State of the Carbon Cycle Report can be found online. It was prepared by the CCIWG in consultation with its Science Steering Group, completed in May 2003, and posted on the web in June 2003.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Footnote 2: The term “impacts” as used in this prospectus refers to specific effects of changes in the carbon cycle, such as acidification of the ocean, the effect of increased CO2on plant growth and survival, and changes in concentrations of carbon in the atmosphere. It is not used as a shortened version of “climate impacts,” as was adopted for the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program.

Notes: This final prospectus also is available as a PDF file.

To receive occasional notices about this product, add your email address to the SAP 2.2 mailing list

Contents

  1. Description of Topic, Audience, Intended Use, and Questions to be Addressed
  2. Contact Information: E-Mail and Telephone for Responsible Individuals
    at the Lead and Supporting Agencies
  3. Lead Authors: Required Expertise of Lead Authors and Biographical Information for Proposed Lead Authors
  4. Stakeholder Interactions
  5. Drafting Process (Including Materials to be Used in Preparing the Product)
  6. Review
  7. Related Activities, Including Other National and International Assessment Processes
  8. Communications: Proposed Method of Publication and Dissemination of the Product
  9. Proposed Timeline

Attachments

  1. Chapter Structure of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2: The State of the Carbon Cycle Report
  2. Biographies of SOCCR Coordinating Team (i.e., SAP 2.2 “Lead Authors”)
  3. Biographies of SOCCR Chapter Authors (i.e., SAP 2.2 “Lead Chapter Authors”)

1. Description of Topic, Audience, Intended Use, and Questions to be Addressed

1.1. Introduction

The carbon cycle chapter of the Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) describes a plan to produce “…a series of increasingly comprehensive and informative reports about the status and trends of carbon emissions and sequestration,” each to be called a State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR). The Carbon Cycle Interagency Working Group’s (CCIWG) Terms of Reference (TOR)1 for a first SOCCR elaborated this in June 2003, saying that what is envisioned is “…a series of reports on the state of the carbon cycle designed to provide accurate, unbiased, and policy-relevant scientific information concerning the carbon cycle to a broad range of stakeholders. The two broad objectives for a State of the Carbon Cycle Report are (1) to summarize scientific knowledge about carbon cycle properties and changes, and (2) to provide scientific information for decision support and policy formulation concerning carbon.” The first SOCCR will be CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product (SAP) 2.2.

The carbon cycle chapter of the CCSP Strategic Plan describes a long-term vision to regularly produce a comprehensive report on the state of the global carbon cycle within 10 years and projects that a near-term, prototype report focused on North America can be produced within 2 years. SAP 2.2 will summarize substantive information about North America’s carbon budget. It also will serve as a prototype for future enhancement and extension to a global report. Subsequent reports are expected to evolve based on the lessons learned in producing earlier reports.

1.2. Topic and Content

SAP 2.2 will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American (including land, atmosphere, and adjacent oceans) carbon budget and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers, it will (1) summarize our knowledge of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the contributions of and impacts2 upon the United States and the rest of the world, and (2) provide scientific information for U.S. decision support focused on key issues for carbon management and policy.

SAP 2.2 will address carbon emissions; natural reservoirs and sequestration; rates of transfer; the consequences of changes in carbon cycling on land and the ocean; effects of purposeful carbon management; effects of agriculture, forestry, and natural resource management on the carbon cycle; and the socio-economic drivers and consequences of changes in the carbon cycle. It will cover North America’s land, atmosphere, inland waters, and adjacent oceans. It will include an analysis of North America’s carbon budget that will document the state of knowledge and quantify best estimates (i.e., consensus, accepted, official) and uncertainties. This analysis will provide a baseline against which future results from the North American Carbon Program (NACP) can be compared. SAP 2.2 will be coordinated with other CCSP synthesis and assessment products as appropriate, especially 2.1 (Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations and Review of Integrated Scenario Development and Application) and 3.1 (Climate Models and Their Uses and Limitations: Climate Sensitivity, Feedbacks, and Uncertainties). More specifically, SAP 2.2 will:

  • Quantify current information on sources and sinks and associated uncertainties related to the buildup of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere. For example, it will provide best estimates of the contribution of carbon dioxide emissions from combustion of fossil fuels in North America to changes in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations for recent decades. Discussion of future changes in fossil fuel emissions will be limited to existing scenarios because scenarios are the central element of the work being done under SAP 2.1.
  • Discuss and assess current accepted projections of the future of the North American carbon budget, including uncertainties in projected fossil fuel emissions and the impact of policy and technology scenarios on those emissions.
  • Provide current estimates, with the associated uncertainties, of the fractions of global and North American fossil-fuel carbon emissions being taken up by North America’s ecosystems and adjacent oceans.
  • Provide current, best available answers to specific questions about the North American carbon budget relevant to carbon management policy options. The questions will be identified through early and continuing dialogue with SAP 2.2 stakeholders. The answers will include explicit characterization of uncertainties.
  • Identify where research supported by the North American Carbon Program will reduce current uncertainties in the North American carbon budget and where future enhancements of NACP research can best be applied to further reduce critical uncertainties.
  • Describe and characterize the carbon cycle as an integrated interactive system, using innovative graphics to depict the carbon cycle in ways that are easily understandable.

1.3. Audience

The audience for SAP 2.2 includes scientists, decisionmakers in the public sector (Federal, State, and local governments), the private sector (carbon-related industry, including energy, transportation, agriculture, and forestry sectors; and climate policy and carbon management interest groups), the international community, and the general public. This broad audience is indicative of the diversity of stakeholder groups interested in knowledge of carbon cycling in North America and of how such knowledge might be used to influence or make decisions. Not all scientific information needs of this broad audience can be met in this first synthesis and assessment product, but the scientific information to be provided will be designed to be understandable by all. The primary users of SAP 2.2 are likely to be officials involved in formulating climate policy, individuals responsible for managing carbon in the environment, and scientists involved in assessing and/or advancing the frontier of knowledge.

1.4. Intended Use

SAP 2.2 will be used (1) as a state-of-the-art assessment of our knowledge of carbon cycle properties and changes relevant to the contributions of and carbon-specific impacts upon the United States in the context of the rest of the world; (2) as a contribution to relevant national and international assessments; (3) to provide the scientific basis for decision support that will guide management and policy decisions that affect carbon fluxes, emissions, and sequestration; (4) as a means of informing policymakers and the public concerning the general state of our knowledge of the global carbon cycle with respect to the contributions of and impacts on the United States; and (5) as a statement of the carbon cycle science information needs of important stakeholder groups. For example, well-quantified regional- and continental-scale carbon source and sink estimates, error terms, and associated uncertainties will be available for use in U.S. climate policy formulation and by resource managers interested in quantifying carbon emissions reductions or carbon uptake and storage. It is expected that participating scientists will publish parallel research articles in peer-reviewed science journals. These research articles will augment SAP 2.2 as a baseline against which to compare future NACP results and as input to future Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Senior managers and the general public will use the Executive Summary of SAP 2.2 and the SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web site—created to support SAP 2.2 development—to improve their overall understanding of the U.S. role in Earth’s carbon budget and to gain perspective on what is and is not known.

1.5. Questions to be Addressed

Questions to be addressed by SAP 2.2 follow:

  • What is the carbon cycle and why should we care?
  • How do North American carbon sources and sinks relate to the global carbon cycle?
  • What are the primary carbon sources and sinks in North America, and how are they changing and why?
  • What are the direct, non-climatic effects of increasing atmospheric CO2or other changes in the carbon cycle on the land and oceans of North America?
  • What are the options and measures implemented in North America that could significantly affect the North American and global carbon cycles (e.g., North American sinks and global atmospheric CO2concentrations)?
  • How can we improve the application of scientific information to decision support for carbon management and climate decisionmaking?

These questions are starting points for producing SAP 2.2; they were developed by the proposed SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team (see Section 3) and refined at the first stakeholders workshop. The draft outline of major sections of the report (see Attachment 1) elaborates on how they will be addressed in the report.

2. Contact Information: E-Mail and Telephone for Responsible Individuals
at the Lead and Supporting Agencies

The lead agencies for SAP 2.2 are the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); the responsible individuals are Dr. Roger Dahlman, Dr. David Hofmann and Dr. James Butler, and Dr. Diane Wickland and Mr. Ed Sheffner, respectively. For legal purposes only, including those of the Information Quality Act (IQA) and Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA), NOAA has been designated the single lead agency for SAP 2.2, and as such, is responsible for ensuring compliance with NOAA’s Information Quality Guidelines and the Office of Management and Budget’s Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review [PDF]. Dr. Krisa Arzayus of NOAA is the point of contact for matters concerning IQA and FACA compliance. Supporting agencies are the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and National Science Foundation (NSF); the responsible individuals are Dr. Marilyn Buford, Mr. Peter Murdoch, and Dr. Fred Lipschultz, respectively.

Krisa Arzayus (NOAA)
(301) 713-2465
Marilyn Buford (USDA)
(703) 605-5176
James Butler (NOAA)
(303) 497-6898
Roger Dahlman (DOE)
(301) 903-4951
David Hofmann (NOAA)
(303) 497-6966
Fred Lipschultz (USGS) (703) 292-7701
Peter Murdoch (USGS)
(518) 285-5663
Ed Sheffner (NASA)
(202) 358-0239
Diane Wickland (NASA)
(202) 358-0245

This group of lead and supporting agency representatives has been designated the “Agency Executive Committee” (AEC) and will be hereafter referred to as such. The CCIWG has formally approved that the AEC will fulfill the role of the “Executive Committee” envisioned in the SOCCR TOR. As NOAA leads SAP 2.2 through the expert peer review, public comment, CCSP and National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) approval, and dissemination processes, it will consult regularly with the AEC, and prior to initiating each major step in the overall process.

3. Lead Authors: Required Expertise of Lead Authors and Biographical Information for Proposed Lead Authors

In 2004, the CCIWG received, conducted a peer review, selected, and funded a proposal from a team of scientific experts to prepare the first SOCCR (SAP 2.2). The proposal was unsolicited and was received after the CCIWG’s TOR for SOCCR was made publicly available. NASA, NOAA, DOE, and NSF agreed to provide the funding. The selected proposal was from the Battelle Memorial Institute (operating as UT-Battelle, LLC out of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory), an outside contractor. The funding award has been set up such that the U.S. Government will not exert management or control over the activities of the contractor nor will U.S. Government officials play a role in selecting authors, holding meetings, setting the agenda, or drafting the final report. NOAA has determined that this approach to produce SAP 2.2 does not require a FACA committee.

The lead authors and their roles are:

Dr. Anthony King, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Overall Lead
Dr. Lisa Dilling, University of Colorado / National Center for Atmospheric Research Stakeholder Interaction Lead
Dr. David Fairman, Consensus Building Institute, Inc. Stakeholder Interaction
Dr. Richard A. Houghton, The Woods Hole Research Cente Scientific Content (Land Use)
Dr. Gregg Marland, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Scientific Content (Emissions)
Dr. Adam Rose, The Pennsylvania State University Scientific Content (Economics)
Dr. Thomas Wilbanks, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Scientific Content (Human Dimensions)

Their activities will be coordinated by:

Mr. Gregory Zimmerman, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Project Coordinator

These individuals will be responsible for organizing and outlining SAP 2.2 and for its final content and submission to NOAA. They will identify chapter authors, coordinate all the inputs to SAP 2.2, and lead the overall synthesis and integration of the report. They will provide oversight and editorial review of individual chapters and will, with the chapter authors, prepare any overview chapters and the Executive Summary. In order to minimize confusion with the group of chapter authors, this group of lead authors and the Project Coordinator will hereafter be referred to as the “SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team.” Their biographies are provided in Attachment 2.

The responsibility for writing each individual chapter of SAP 2.2 will be assigned to one or more scientific experts in the topic area of the chapter; this person (or persons) will be designated the lead chapter author(s). The chapter authors will be recognized leaders in their fields, drawn from the wide and diverse scientific community of North America and the world, as well as other qualified stakeholder groups. Qualifications that will be recognized are the quality and relevance of current publications in the peer-reviewed literature pertaining to their chapter topics, past or present positions of leadership in the topic fields, and other documented experience and knowledge of high relevance. Lead chapter authors will be responsible for the review and synthesis of current knowledge and production of text. They will be responsible for recruiting well-qualified contributing authors in their areas of expertise and responsibility. Chapter authors will be responsible for assuring that scientific expert, stakeholder, and public review comments on their chapters are reflected in the final report. All authors will be listed in association with their contributions (e.g., chapters) in the final report.

The following lead chapter authors have been contacted and have agreed to participate in drafting the SOCCR (SAP 2.2):

Their biographies are provided in Attachments 2 and 3. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team have discussed the draft chapter outline and candidate chapter authors in their initial consultations with science, government, private sector, and other stakeholders, and provided opportunities for comments and additional nominations during these consultations and from the public through the CCSP and SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web posting and comment processes.

The chapter author’s assignment to lead a specific topical chapter has been determined as part of this process. Lead and contributing chapter author selections were made to ensure a balance of scientific and technical expertise and that disparate views that have significant scientific support are represented. Final authorship decisions were made by the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team, communicated to NOAA and the AEC, and posted on the SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web site. The lead authors for each chapter are identified in Attachment 1.

4. Stakeholder Interactions

A process for engaging important stakeholder groups and establishing an ongoing dialogue with them will be a priority activity. Stakeholder involvement is essential to ensure transparency – open access to information on the SAP 2.2; feedback on relevance – review and comment on the SAP 2.2 process and verification that information produced by the SAP 2.2 will be useful; and credibility – recognition by the stakeholders of the scientific validity and independence of the SAP 2.2. These activities will be the responsibility of the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team. Their plan includes “a structured dialogue between scientists and stakeholders to identify and clarify information needs of managers and decisionmakers”as the first of two major SAP 2.2 tasks.

The process of engaging stakeholders requires first establishing a meaningful, two-way dialogue. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team notes in its proposal that “the initial design and context are critically important and that the framing process requires great care.”The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team’s plan for a structured dialogue with stakeholders involves a partnership with the Consensus Building Institute, Inc. — an organization that has broad experience working with diverse stakeholder communities in the energy and environmental sectors. A multistage process has been planned to provide access and information exchange (see Section 9 below for the proposed timeline).

Significant activities have already been conducted to seek stakeholder input and to scope the report. They were conducted as SOCCR activities, without reference to SAP 2.2. These activities were used to prepare this prospectus and its attachments. They include:

  • An initial draft outline of the SOCCR was produced by the SOCCR Coordinating Team and delivered to the AEC on 30 September 2004.
  • A stakeholder assessment involving in-depth interviews and discussions with approximately 30 representatives of key stakeholder communities (e.g., scientists, policymakers, policy advocates, and carbon-related industries) was initiated 1 October 2004. Representatives of key stakeholder constituencies were identified by taking advantage of existing stakeholder contacts, processes such as CCSP’s web posting and public comment process, inputs from individuals providing information for the update to the Voluntary Greenhouse Gas Registry, CCIWG member’s knowledge of key policymakers and groups, and referrals from the stakeholders contacted. Inputs were assessed in order to narrow focus to stakeholders needs in a few key areas, and then to conduct in-depth interviews with stakeholders in those areas. This assessment resulted in a November 2004 State of the Carbon Cycle Report Stakeholder Assessment Report.
  • A web site for SOCCR was developed and put online in October 2004 with information on progress and planning for the SOCCR. A listserve mailing list was established to distribute electronic information about SOCCR and contains over 300 individuals.
  • A First Stakeholders Workshop for the SOCCR was held at the Key Bridge Marriott hotel in Arlington, Virginia, 15-16 November 2004. Twenty-seven participants from industry, academia, environmental interest organizations, scientists / researchers, and decisionmakers from the Federal government attended the workshop. Aprimary objective of this First Stakeholders Workshop was to seek input on how well the 30 September 2004 draft outline addressed scientific, policy, business, and other interests and concerns. The workshop resulted in the creation of a revised outline responsive to the interests and needs of the stakeholders. The workshop also identified additional opportunities for future stakeholder involvement throughout the development of the SOCCR.
  • The draft outline produced at the First Stakeholder Workshop (Attachment 1) was posted on the SOCCR web site on 19 November 2004 for a public comment period of 30 days ending 19 December 2004. Notice of the availability of the SOCCR outline for comment was e-mailed to all interviewees, workshop participants, candidate chapter authors, and individuals on the SOCCR listserve shortly after posting on the web. A number of comments were received through the automated web site and considered according to the Guidelines for Producing Synthesis and Assessment Products. The comments received and the lead authors’ responses to them have been posted on the SOCCR web site.
  • A “sounding board” composed of individuals of widely recognized expertise and stature in carbon cycle research has been established to provide input to the SOCCR Coordinating Team primarily on scientific/technical issues in preparing the report.
  • A Town Hall meeting on the SOCCR (entitled The State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): Integrating Scientific Synthesis and Assessment with Stakeholders Interests and Issues) was held 16 December 2004, as part of the 2004 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco, California.
  • A “Joint Authors-Stakeholders Workshop” bringing the lead chapter authors of the draft SOCCR together with a diversity of stakeholders was held at the Crystal City Marriott hotel in Arlington, Virginia, on October 24, 2005. Lead chapter authors and stakeholders from public and private research institutions, and governmental organizations attended the workshop. Aprimary objective of the Joint Workshop was to seek input from stakeholders on the relevance of the SOCCR chapter material for their decision making processes at an early stage in the document’s formulation. Based upon feedback from the stakeholders, the Workshop resulted in a modification of the structural content of the SOCCR chapters to make the report more consistent across the entire document. The stakeholders also identified a few instances where discussions of additional topics could easily be added to improve the document. The day following this workshop (October 25, 2005) the lead chapter authors met to reflect on and respond to the results of the previous day’s dialogue with stakeholders, and to discuss their individualscientific perspectives in relation to the integration of their respective chapters into the overall SOCCR report.
  • On 8 December 2005, the Coordinating Team hosted a Town Hall (entitled The State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR): Integrating Scientific Synthesis and Assessment with Stakeholder Interests and Issues) as part of the Fall 2005 meeting of the American Geophysical Union. The Coordinating Team reported on the progress on the SOCCR, described the timeline for its scheduled completion, and answered questions on content and process.

One additional stakeholders workshop will be conducted to foster communication, establish interactions among stakeholders and SAP 2.2 authors, and develop inputs to shape the content of SAP 2.2. Throughout the development of SAP 2.2, inputs from the stakeholders will be communicated to the SAP 2.2 chapter authors so that the report can be revised and refined. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team has taken advantage of CCSP’s posting and review process to both identify stakeholders and capture additional inputs from them. Stakeholder inputs that cannot be incorporated into SAP 2.2 will be captured and summarized so they can be used to inform future State of the Carbon Cycle Reports.

5. Drafting Process (Including Materials to be Used in Preparing the Product)

The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team has discussed the draft chapter outline in their initial consultations with science, government, private sector, and other stakeholders, and provided opportunities for comments and additional nominations during these consultations and from the public through the CCSP and SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web posting and comment processes. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team is responsible for the detailed outline of the SAP 2.2 and making final decisions about the scope and full content of the report. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team is responsible for ensuring the report is well integrated, balanced, and responsive. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team plans to achieve the scientific synthesis through compilation and analysis of the relevant scientific literature and available databases. Since SAP 2.2 will be completed during the initial stages of NACP, much of the information for SAP 2.2 will, by necessity, be derived from publications of many independent investigations and may consider portions of North America or may subset North America from larger geographical analyses. Many decisions will be required about how to handle disparate information. These issues were discussed with chapter authors at both the first (May 2005) and second (October 2005) authors’ workshops.

Many data sets required for SAP 2.2 are already available at data archives such as the NOAA Climate Monitoring Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL), the DOE Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), and the NASA Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). However, some of the scientific questions raised by SAP 2.2 will require further data compilation, synthesis, and integration efforts. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will compile a central tabulation of referenced and supporting data, including links to available data, documentation, and contact information for data that are not easily accessible. The use of unpublished data will be discouraged for SAP 2.2. If any such data should be proposed for use, approval will be sought consistent with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products. The SAP 2.2 will also require tabulation of data that are not purely numerical. As described above, the effective coordination of the SAP 2.2 will depend on a systematic and regularly updated tabulation of the activities of ongoing related programs, with contact information and links to relevant web sites. The proper documentation of in-text citations will require compilation of a substantial web-accessible bibliographic database.

All authors will be provided with NOAA’s Information Quality Guidelines as specified in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products, which will include compliance with the overall Office of Management and Budget (OMB) guidelines: OMB Guidelines for Ensuring and Maximizing the Quality, Objectivity, Utility, and Integrity of Information Disseminated by Federal Agencies and the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review [PDF].

The authors of SAP 2.2 will be expected to emphasize accuracy and precision of numerical information, confidence levels, characterization of uncertainties, and transparency of original data and model sources. SAP 2.2 will provide a clear discussion of uncertainties and how uncertainties may be reduced, preferably through a section of each chapter in which measurements, model results, or combinations of data and models occur. Numerical values will be accompanied by measures of uncertainty (e.g., ± x units or percent). Where the uncertainty cannot be quantified, an explanation or justification will be given. Statements that are vague will be avoided. All data used in SAP 2.2 (or linked by a SAP 2.2-related website) will be clearly documented, including data source and other information needed to evaluate information.

To ensure consistency and thoroughness in the treatment of uncertainties across all chapters of SAP 2.2, the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will maintain regular oversight of overall data and information quality as presented in workshops and in draft text.

6. Review

NOAA will ensure that SAP 2.2 is reviewed at all stages as specified in the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products and consistent with the Information Quality Act and Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review, that comments and other feedback are provided to the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team for response, and that comments and responses are documented and made publicly available.

6.1. During Drafting Period

The SAP 2.2 Coordinating team plans to post on the SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web site the list of authors and all drafts of the outline, chapters, and complete report, with a mechanism for providing comments through the web site. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will also establish a process and standards for ongoing information quality review.

6.2. Expert Review of First Draft

NOAA will coordinate a formal, external expert peer review of the first draft, drawing from the national and international communities of scientific and technical experts and following the highest standards of rigor in peer review. Expert peer reviewers will be deemed qualified through their record of scholarly publication in the topic areas of SAP 2.2 and/or comparable experience and accomplishment that are well-documented. NOAA will draw from all CCIWG agencies’ lists of qualified expert peer reviewers and will solicit suggestions for expert peer reviewers from the scientific community and other stakeholders through the CCSP and SAP 2.2 web posting and comment processes. The public is invited to nominate expert reviewers to participate in the peer review of the draft SAP 2.2. Nominations should be sent to Dr. Krisa Arzayus at by 30 April 2006 and must include the potential reviewer’s contact information, curriculum vitae, and list of publications. Reviewer selections will be made to ensure a balance of scientific and technical expertise and that disparate views that have significant scientific support are considered appropriately. The reviewers will include experts with knowledge of the types of information and level of technical detail that will make the report useful to decisionmakers and other stakeholders. Peer reviewers who are Federal employees will be subject to Federal requirements governing conflict of interest [see 18 U.S.C. 208, 5 C.F.R. Part 2635 (2004)]. Reviewers who are not Federal employees will be screened pursuant to the National Academy of Sciences policy for committee selection with respect to conflict of interest. The charge to reviewers, their names and affiliations, and unattributed solicited comments will be posted on NOAA’s Information Quality Act web site and linked and/or replicated on the CCSP web site.

The expert review of the first draft will be conducted by a minimum of 15 expert peer reviewers who will submit comments similar to those solicited as part of a journal peer review. Mail-in evaluations will be requested from these reviewers. Reviewers will be asked to use the following questions in formulating their comments:

  • Is the scope and intent for the synthesis and assessment product clearly described in the report? Are all aspects of this charge fully addressed? Do the authors go beyond this charge or their expertise?
  • Are the conclusions and recommendations adequately supported by evidence, analysis, and argument?
  • Are uncertainties or incompleteness in the evidence explicitly recognized?
  • Are the data and analyses handled competently? Are statistical methods applied appropriately?
  • Are the report’s exposition and organization effective? Is the title appropriate?
  • Is the report fair and appropriately balanced?
  • Is the report’s tone impartial and devoid of special pleading?
  • Are any of the report’s findings based on value judgments or the collective opinions of the authors? If so, is this acknowledged, and are scientifically defensible reasons given for reaching those judgments?
  • Does the executive summary concisely and accurately describe the key findings and recommendations? Is it consistent with the other sections of the report?
  • What other significant improvements, if any, might be made in the report?

NOAA does not plan to convene a peer review panel, but reserves the right to do so (by either calling a meeting or holding a teleconference) if conflicting comments or detailed technical considerations need to be resolved prior to providing feedback to the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team. The reviews, as submitted, will be made available to the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team. The Coordinating Team and the lead authors of SAP 2.2 will revise the draft report by incorporating comments and suggestions from the reviewers as they deem appropriate based on their scientific judgment. The authors will acknowledge significant contributions made by expert reviewers, as applicable. The Coordinating Team will prepare a written response to the peer reviewers’ comments explaining its agreement or disagreement with the views of the peer reviewers; the actions taken in response to the peer review; and the reasons why those actions respond to the peer reviewers’ key concerns. This response will be made publicly available. The expert peer review will be conducted during a two-month period to start in May 2006.

6.3. Public Review of the Second Draft

After revision, the second draft SAP 2.2 will be released for public comment. The public comment period will be 45 days. Following this comment period, the authors will prepare a third draft of the report, taking into consideration the comments submitted during the public comment period. The scientific judgment of the authors will determine responses to the technical comments. All comments submitted during the public review will be made publicly available. The public comment period will begin in September 2006.

6.4. CCSP and NSTC Review of the Third Draft

Once the revisions to the second draft are complete, the SAP Coordinating Team will submit the third draft of the synthesis and assessment product to NOAA. Once NOAA determines that the report conforms to CCSP and IQA guidelines, it will submit the draft product and a compilation of the comments received to the CCSP Interagency Committee. If the CCSP Interagency Committee determines that further revision is necessary, their comments will be sent to NOAA to seek consideration and resolution by the Coordinating Team and lead authors. If needed, the National Research Council (NRC) will be asked to provide additional scientific analysis to bound scientific uncertainty associated with specific issues.

If the CCSP Interagency Committee review determines that no further revisions are needed and that the report has been prepared in conformance with the Guidelines for Producing CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products and the Information Quality Act (including ensuring objectivity, utility, and integrity as defined in 67 FR 8452), they will submit the report to the NSTC for clearance. Clearance will require the concurrence of all members of the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources. The CCSP Interagency Committee will be responsible for seeing that comments generated during the NSTC review are addressed. They will consult with NOAA and the authors to develop an appropriate response. If the synthesis and assessment product should need to be revised, the revisions will be written by the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team and/or chapter authors and then routed back through NOAA and the CCSP Interagency Committee to the NSTC. All comments generated by the NSTC review and the responses to them will be made publicly available.

After clearance and prior to publication, the AEC, CCIWG, Coordinating Team, and all authors will be given the opportunity to examine the final report. If at this stage, or any earlier stage in this process, an individual author cannot accept the outcomes of the writing, review, and revision process, they will be accorded the opportunity to withdraw their name from the publication.

7. Related Activities, Including Other National and International Assessment Processes

As a near-term report, SAP 2.2 will utilize, to the maximum extent possible, the information available from existing data, programs, and related activities in the United States and internationally. SAP 2.2 will be coordinated with related work in a way that does not duplicate previous and ongoing assessments. Coordination with the NACP will be necessary to ensure that the most current information is available to scientists and stakeholders contributing to SAP 2.2 and so that NACP benefits from the scientific baseline and assessment of stakeholder needs for scientific information that SAP 2.2 will establish. SAP 2.2 will be both informed by and used as an input to relevant national and international assessments.

A particular concern is the development of partnerships with international groups whose interests overlap those of SAP 2.2. Although SAP 2.2 will be a U.S. report, the information in SAP 2.2 must reflect international scientific understanding. It is imperative that SAP 2.2 be coordinated with ongoing international efforts to avoid duplication of effort, to maximize effectiveness, and to ensure that the most up-to-date integrated science is presented in a global context. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will ensure that relevant international scientific bodies are informed of the intent and progress of the SAP 2.2 and will seek to harmonize its efforts with ongoing relevant work of such bodies.

The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will establish informal communications with participants in IPCC, the Global Carbon Project (GCP), and national programs in Canada and Mexico. The schedule for the next IPCC assessment report (May 2005 for material in draft form, and December 2005 for the material to have been published) is such that the results of SAP 2.2 will not be available in time to be incorporated. However, informal communications among the authors of the two activities will ensure that knowledge of the most up-to-date and reliable information and analyses is exchanged.

8. Communications: Proposed Method of Publication and Dissemination of the Product

Once NSTC clearance has been obtained, NOAA will coordinate publication and release of SAP 2.2. Financial support for the production and distribution of the final SAP 2.2 will come from the Federal government agencies of the CCIWG and the U.S. CCSP. SAP 2.2 will be printed and hardcopies will be made available through the CCSP Office; it will also be made available electronically on both the CCSP and SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web sites. The published report will follow the standard format for all CCSP synthesis and assessment products.

An interactive, high-quality web site has been developed for SOCCR (SAP 2.2) and will be used to make SAP 2.2 and a wide variety of information about it available to all stakeholders and the general public. The web site will serve multiple functions: complementing the printed version of the SAP 2.2, allowing worldwide access to the SAP 2.2 from any internet location; expanding the SAP 2.2 content in a fashion that will be especially useful to the research community by allowing users to click on links for further information, references, notes, etc. under specific sections of the text; linking to U.S. agency and international carbon cycle science and management websites -- providing a web portal to highlight all of the existing, ongoing work; and providing an interactive way for users to comment on their experience of the SAP 2.2 and how it might be made more useful in the future.

Opportunities for offering information to the SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team will be broadly disseminated in scientific and other public venues. The SAP 2.2 Coordinating Team, chapter authors, and other participants in SAP 2.2 will publicize the SAP 2.2 process widely. The purposes are to disseminate information about the process and to persuade key stakeholders to participate and use the SAP 2.2 report as an aid to management and decisionmaking. A package of material will be created for all those involved in the SAP 2.2 to use as they travel in their ongoing professional work. The SOCCR (SAP 2.2) web site will be publicized at scientific meetings, to agency representatives, and at other appropriate venues (e.g., carbon sequestration meetings). The web site will explain the process of the SAP 2.2, and list information as it is approved for release. There will be an opportunity for comments to be logged on that site, and records will be kept of all comments as well as the responses to those comments.

9. Proposed Timeline

The SAP 2.2 schedule is:

Activity
Months
From
Start
Estimated
Completion Date
Start work
0
1 September 2004
Submit draft outline to AEC
1
1 October 2004
Identify and initiate consultations with stakeholders
1.5
16 October 2004
First Stakeholders Meeting
2.5
15-16 November 2004
Establish SOCCR web site
2.5
15 November 2004
CCSP posts prospectus for public review
5
2 February 2005
Public review period for prospectus ends
6
7 March 2005
First Chapter Authors Workshop
8.5
16-17 May 2005
NOAA guidance on FACA as applied to SAP 2.2 process
13.5
20 October 2005
Joint Authors-Stakeholders Workshop
13.5
24-25 October 2005
Chapter authors’ materials/manuscripts compiled
17.5
13 February 2006

CCSP posts revised, final prospectus

17.5
14 February 2006
Expert reviewer nominations due
20
30 April 2006
Submit draft SAP 2.2 to NOAA
20.5
12 May 2006
Complete expert peer review of draft SAP 2.2
22
7 July 2006
Deliver revised SAP 2.2 to NOAA
24
1 September 2006
Post revised SAP 2.2 for public review and comment
24
8 September 2006
Third Stakeholders Meeting
25
September or October 2006
Public review and comment period closes
26
31 October 2006
Complete and deliver SAP 2.2 to NOAA
29
31 January 2007
CCSP and NSTC review completed and SAP 2.2 released
30
March 2007

List of Attachments

  1. Chapter Structure of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.2: The State of the Carbon Cycle Report
  2. Biographies of SOCCR Coordinating Team (i.e., SAP 2.2 “Lead Authors”)
  3. Biographies of SOCCR Chapter Authors (i.e., SAP 2.2 “Lead Chapter Authors”)

 


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